"The Dominican Republic's economic growth and export prospects are solid."

That's right....And, will remain so, but only if the M&M's assume power. ...If not......

No matter what color takes the throne as a result of the election, it has the formidable responsibility of maintaining the "stability" of the economy. To me stability means an economy already in recession and not going up or down. My fear is the present PLD government administration has played with the economic indicators, ( cooked the books ) , to give a semblance of sound economic health in order to provide a scenario inclined with an eye on a favorable vote for its candidate. It remembers well why it was voted in during 2004, not so much of the public having confidence in the PLD platform, rather it was the publics reaction to the devaluation of the Peso and the instability of the banking system under the PRD administration. The shoe is on the other foot now and the present administation wants to paint a pretty economic picture for the voting public.

The true picture of the economy will be exposed after the election.

Exactly ZOOMA!


Danilo Medina and Margarita the "Mad Hatter" Fernandez= More of the same only WORSE!

The true picture of the economy will be exposed after the election. ++++

Danilo Medina and Margarita the "Mad Hatter" Fernandez= More of the same only WORSE! ++++**

The constant value of the peso is a pretty good indicator of our economic stability. Inflation hasn't done much to diminish it's value. It has not fluctuated wildly as it's typical of a sick economy.
I doubt very much that a govt can hide the realities of a nation's currency strength
It is naive and delutional to think otherwise.

Well ! If my burro was able to vote, he would return the present party to the presidential palace. He explained to me this morning "It only makes sense. ....... If the PRD is voted in, they are going to reverse everything the PLD claims to have accomplished". I asked "Why is it so important to you ?"
He responded, "They'll reversed the directions of the streets and I will not know where to stop to deliver the water".

As the late Great Paul Harvey would say you heard the News now here is the rest of the Story!



Fri Apr 27, 2012 5:41pm EDT

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

Overview
-- The Dominican Republic's economic growth and export prospects are
solid, and we expect the government to remain committed to fiscal and
macroeconomic stability.
-- However, the Dominican Republic has weak institutions and many
structural rigidities.
-- We are affirming our 'B+/B' local- and foreign-currency sovereign
credit ratings on the Dominican Republic. The outlook remains stable.
-- We expect the new government (that will assume office following
presidential elections on May 20, 2012) to remain fiscally prudent, including
implementing early measures to correct a likely worsening fiscal situation in
the first half of 2012 and reengaging the IMF.

continued:


On April 27, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services af

Rating Action

On April 27, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'B+/B'
long- and short-term local- and foreign-currency sovereign credit ratings on
the Dominican Republic. The outlook remains stable. Standard & Poor's transfer
and convertibility assessment on the Dominican Republic is unchanged at 'BB'.
The recovery rating on the government's bonds also remains unchanged, at '3'.

Rationale

The ratings on the Dominican Republic reflect the country's weak institutions
and the politicization and opaqueness of decision-making, which lessen the
predictability and effectiveness of the government's policies. These
inefficiencies result in low tax collection due to widespread tax evasion and
excessive tax exemptions and in weak competitiveness due to bureaucracy,
corruption, and slow progress in reforming the electricity sector, among other
things.

continued:

Supporting the ratings are the ongoing commitment to correcting fiscal
and structural inefficiencies (important advances were made under the recently
ended IMF standby program), solid growth potential stemming from the country's
well-diversified economy, improving export prospects, and strengthened debt
management.

On the fiscal front, the government remains committed to lowering fiscal
deficits. It introduced a number of tax measures and controlled spending in
2011 to counterbalance continuously low tax collection and
higher-than-anticipated electricity subsidies (amid rising oil prices). The
fiscal deficit was 2.6% of GDP in 2011, similar to that of 2010. Fiscal
performance likely will deteriorate in the first half of 2012 because of
preelection spending. Arrears to suppliers are already on the rise.
(Presidential elections will be held on May 20, 2012.)

continued:

However, we expect that efforts to control expenses in the second half of 2012, including a possible new electricity tariff adjustment, should keep the fiscal situation in line.

We project a fiscal deficit of 2.9% of GDP this year. The net general
government debt is projected to increase by 2.6% of GDP on average from
2012-2014.

We expect net general government debt to be 36% of GDP (including the central
bank's certificates but excluding recapitalization bonds) at year-end 2012. We
project a gross borrowing requirement of 5.2% of GDP this year, which we
expect the government to cover with proceeds from a $250 million bond issued
in 2011, Petrocaribe disbursements, other bilateral and multilateral funding,
and domestic financing. We project gross financing needs will increase in 2013
and 2014, reflecting the scheduled repayments of International Monetary Fund
(IMF) and Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) loans.

continued:

We expect the government to use new multilateral and external commercial borrowings to
finance these repayments. As such, we anticipate that the new government that
will assume office in August 2012 will reengage the IMF on a timely basis. The
last US$1.7 billion standby program, which ended in February 2012 (two last
reviews were not completed), was instrumental in anchoring progress in fiscal,
monetary, and electricity areas. But the election has interrupted this
positive momentum.

Continuously high economic growth and improved export prospects as well as
greater policy flexibility due to the start of the new government term in
August 2012 balance out these risks. We expect real GDP per capita growth of
3.1% in 2012 and weighted real GDP per capita growth of 3.9% from 2005-2014 on
average. Gains in a variety of productive sectors are responsible for the
solid economic growth.

continued:

A turnaround in the maquila (manufacturing) industry
and a start of ferro-nickel (2011) and gold (mid-2012) exports should further
boost economic activity and exports. Despite these improvements, external
liquidity remains weak, though it has improved over the years as a result of
the buildup of international reserves. Usable reserves (excluding reserve
requirement on foreign currency deposits) covered 1.4 months of current
account payments in 2011, and we forecast that it will stay at the same level
in 2012 before declining slightly thereafter. Gross external financing needs
(current account payments plus short-term debt and long-term debt
amortization) are estimated at 117% of current account receipts and usable
reserves in 2012, but they should increase to 121% by year-end 2014,
reflecting higher amortization.

continued:

In the electricity sector, reform challenges persist, but managerial changes,
tariff increases in 2010-2011, and specific quantitative benchmarks that were
set as part of the IMF standby program are slowly bearing some positive
results. Meaningful advancement in this sector will only be gradual and will
follow de-politicization of decision-making in this sector, investment of
additional technical and financial resources, and improvement in the payment
culture.

On the political front, we do not anticipate shifts in policymaking, regardless of the election outcome.

BOTH candidates signaled the importance of reengaging the IMF, and they are expected to prioritize fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability.

continued:

Outlook

The stable outlook reflects the Dominican Republic's solid growth and export
prospects and our expectation that the government will continue its efforts to
narrow fiscal deficits. We balance these strengths against the risk of fiscal
and external deterioration if the government does not implement corrective
measures in a timely manner. An advance in addressing the structural
deficiencies in the electricity sector, improving tax system efficiency, and
strengthening the external profile would benefit the sovereign's
creditworthiness. We expect close cooperation with the IMF and a formal
engagement in the second half of 2012.

On the other hand, fiscal slippage, which would likely exacerbate the external
vulnerability, would be a negative factor and could put pressure on the
rating, especially if the political willingness to reverse the slippage is
lacking.

continued:

Stop the Isanity.....stop the Insanity......josean you are padding your word count for your final check from PRD headquarters......it's over ...go home and get your shine box

Similarly, delays or uncertainties surrounding the reengagement of
multilaterals would decrease policy transparency, lower investor confidence,
and increase credit risks. Any changes in the Petrocaribe concessional
financing (which finances roughly 15% of the country's oil imports) would also
be a negative.

Related Criteria And Research
Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And Assumptions, June 30, 2011

Ratings List

Ratings Affirmed

Dominican Republic
Sovereign Credit Rating B+/Stable/B
Transfer & Convertibility Assessment BB
Senior Unsecured B+
Recovery Rating 3

(Caryn Trokie, New York Ratings Unit)


And there you have the full unEDITED Story!

I know some people just like to chose and fit like you!

Hey Zooma, go into the private banks home pages and look at their anual report, it shows there that they are making money like hell by lending money for personal loans, to businesses and also for mortgages. I think that the BHD reported making 189 Millions Dollars in profits. That is good indicator, more and more supermarkets are being open through out the country, about 20 new malls in the past 8 years. Did you had the time to read the article posted by the hotel industry, well it says that they had a pritty good 2011 and that the 2012 looks much more promising than 2011. Las Terrenas along had a 29% increase in tourist this year so far and the rest of the country a 7.8%. I work in the real estate industry and I can tell you that this year has been pretty good for our company which is also a good indicator when normally on election year people tend not to spend much money.

bernies, I'm no real-estate expert, but perhaps they're spending their Pesos now in anticipation they will be worth much less after the election? Also my understanding is your industry profits from volume of sales, not necessarily good prices. Maybe many are selling their house and buying a one-way ticket out?

Ron believes the relative stability of the Peso is an indication of the health of the economy. However it is being artificially propped up by the central bank, presumably under pressure from the government, until after the election, at the expense of the country's reserves. If the Peso doesn't plummet after the election, especially if Hippo returns to the throne, I'll eat my hat.

Josian's fine posting seems to me to reinforce the imperative that Hippo be prevented from returning to the throne, by the only means available, by voting for Danelo.

bernies ..spot on ....every indicator from so many different areas indicate growth in the DR and no more than in the banks who are lending a lot at present..There must be much liquidity in the market ,,but inflation is still the big worry .Just look at Spain where the banking sector is dire straights and unemployment is over 25 % in total and almost 50 % for teenagers ,We may have a lot to complain about regarding the corruption and the legal system but we are growing well.

says Bernies

Las Terrenas along had a 29% increase in tourist this year so far and the rest of the country a 7.8%

that is headcount. did the article state how much they spent on average, and how long they spent?did it say how much of this traffic is all inclusive? you do know that 80% of the money a tourist spends on an all inclusive vacation goes to the airfare, the hotel, and services like ground transportation. besides, a portion of the 20% also leaves by way of import and export leakages. so, Bernies, the question for the day is...how are locals benefitting from this bonanza? secondly, is the carrying capacity of the area able to withstand such magnitude of growth, without envirinmental repercussions? thirdly, what portion of this is attributed to cruise ship tourism? your answers would be appreciated.

Some contributors on this site can't seem to shake the "gloom and doom" mentality that is typical in their postings.
No matter who says what, it's always a govt plot to distort reality and fool the citizenry and businesses, alike!
I assume the agency TEXT-S&P is in no way, in cahoots with our govt to deceive anyone!...But no matter, whenever there's a rosy report, it's always some kind of sham, regardless...jeez!

actually, RonEvane, you can number me in with the pessimists. when a President tells me that the plan is to raise the level of imports from 5 billion to 20 billion, in 5 years, then i take it that he is peeing on my leg, and telling me that it is raining.

Well, Dread. If the plan is to import more goods, then presumably, we'll have the money to pay for it, no?..Perhaps, ( I don't know), we'll be exporting more than we take in, or remittances will grow bigger.
I'm not an economists, all I can base my opinions on, are the fact that the DR did not suffer through the world-wide recession as terribly as that of 1st-world nations that are still struggling to mitigate it.
The peso hasn't been devalued and inflation has been minimal. If it were not for the huge rise in the price of oil, we could be expecting a stronger peso.The rise in price in agricultural produce has been due, mostly, to higher fuel prices. The rise in other consumer goods is a result of price gouging, not inflation, or so I think.
Our economy has been steadily growing ever since we got rid of "El Burro".

pardon the error, Ron, but i meant exports.

just a word of reality, Ron. i am in the process of negotiating a rice deal, to ship from the DR to Jamaica. the best price i can get out of the DR is 18.5 peso per lb, FOB Dom Rep. i can get the same rice for 10 peso per lb, FOB Bankok. so, the production costs here are not in line with world prices. the export levels are not going anywhere, any time soon.

Well, why not?..DR has great untapped potential and can be an economic powerhouse but only if the govt could do it's job and ease up on restrictions and red tape!
To go from 5 to 20 billion in exports may be a bit of a stretch, but I think it can be done! What we desperately need are steady, reliable electricity and rail lines to transport goods to modern sea ports in Haina and Montecristi.
In just a few years, the agricultural and manufacturing sectors along the line, can make this a reality... Investors will put their money where the goods can be made in quantity and quality to be shipped to market in a cheap and secured fashion.
There's really no mystery to growing a business and the DR govt should think an perform as a business. There's a ready market out there waiting for us to exploit it, but only if we use our head...the one above.

These ratings are based on numbers supplied by the government.

The people making the ratings are being mislead..

Government reports are all based on BS and what gives the best impression, rather than the truth.

We've got tourism.

AND THAT'S IT.

As we all know, Dread, Thailand is one huge rice field and likely has a better understanding and technical know-how on how to grow rice.
I'm assuming DR does not have that advantage. I'm guessing rice costs more to grow, hence the difference in prices.
Another consideration would be the distance in shipping it to Jamaica. I don't know what "FOB" stands for. If it means that a shipload will get to Jamaica @ 10 peso, rather than 18.5, then, I see your point and we're losing market shares. I think I'll borrow books on commerce or take a course at the university. I'm sadly ignorant in this field and so many others..Alas!

"These ratings are based on numbers supplied by the government.

The people making the ratings are being mislead..

Government reports are all based on BS and what gives the best impression, rather than the truth.'


juanb,


Excellent!.....but you forgot to add the favorite phrase of the Dominican Milton Friedman;


"It is naive and delutional to think otherwise."

dreadlocks, * : josean * juanb, *

There has been a spurt in some construction and investment. However, as RoyStone suggests, this action is more in anticipation of the election, that whatever the outcome the Peso will not buy what it is buying now. I have seen it happen before in previous presidential elections the public with cash in hand will start capital projects purchasing at today's prices, knowing once the election is over the market will demand more cash for material and services. This behavior is in anticipation of government call for enforcement of tax payments and fees that were suspended (overlooked) during the election campaigns, the bringing into the light of day the debts and imprudent fiscal policies the government has swept under the rug. These are dotted line factors not included in the formulas used by rating agencies as they are considered abstract. Hence, the ratings can skew the true fiscal picture.

Ron,
FOB means free on board.
That means loaded, all taxes, duties etc. paid and ready to leave port. It is not the landed cost in Jamaica which may be higher.
Regardless, such a massive price differential means something is very wrong here.

This is definitely good news, but bad news for the Burro lovers out there.

Wow, zooma! You must be one heck of an economist to be able to analyze supposed trends and come up with: "whatever the outcome the Peso will not buy what it is buying now"...Well, of course not!.. Currency always devalues in time. But will this be due to a change in government?
..Will it be like, --a month after Medina took charge, suddenly, the economy went belly up!?--
And the Peso took a plunge against the Dollar..The exchange rate is now 40, 50, or 60 to the Dollar!...And all because of a change in governance?

I don't claim to know much about anything, but I still have a little common sense left in me. What you're saying are just a lot of skewed conjecture with no basis in reality!
I'll tell you this: When Medina takes over, the economy will accelerate in response to his stance against corruption and prudent economic policies! We will prosper as we have never before and the Peso will be able to purchase a hell of a lot more than it can today!!
Mark my words!

Ron,
Are you taking bets on the Peso holding up? I'd like to place my life savings on the fact it won't, but I can't find any takers.

Roy, I'm not a betting person, but in this case, due to what I see, read and hear,once the elections are over,( provided Medina wins), nothing will happen to the Peso..So yes, I'm willing to bet a few Australian Dollars (are they worth anything?), that, at the very least, it'll stay at it's current value for the next six months, or so! After that, It will appreciate somewhat!
As time goes on and things become more manageable, the economy will begin to flourish and take on a life of it's own. We may have to start worrying about it rising tooo fast and try to put a brake on it!....You think I'm dreaming?...We'll see!

Excellent post royevan..
Your post make a logical sense without extremist passions
Good analysis..

I Love the fact that internationally speaking people keep upgrading domincan finantial situation
Thanks pld.. web are proud of you!
:)

In case you missed this:


Written by: juanb, 28 Apr 2012 2:11 PM

From: Dominican Republic



These ratings are based on numbers supplied by the government.

The people making the ratings are being mislead..

Government reports are all based on BS and what gives the best impression, rather than the truth.

Ron asks if Australian Dollars are worth "anything" -

At the moment, one Australian Dollar has climbed to approximately 41 Pesos, or $1.05 US
For your information, the Australian economy was one of the few that didn't go into recession during the recent global financial crisis, that is, in real terms, not Dominican government spin terms.

Now it's time to put your money where your mouth is. So how much do you want to bet on the Peso going up against the Australian Dollar, say 30 days after the election?

Macro Economic Grows has a lot to do with CONFIDENCE.
The only confidence that HipoLoco meet is that: The Financial Institutions will be leaving in a noon, as soon as El Burro wins (!)

anyway, I am sure that: Josean can explains Macro Economics Dynamic's to El Burro (?)

Excellent post by tschotschua...
You are 100 % right...

" So how much do you want to bet on the Peso going up against the Australian Dollar, say 30 days after the election?"

I don't keep track of your currency. But, I will bet the Peso will not go down against the US Dollar.
If it does, I'll send you, as a parting gift, enought to buy your lovely wife a dozen roses.
If I win, You'll have to send me pictures of you and wife, once you get to Melbourne!

That's the deal, unless you have other thoughts.

I love when the best economist and financial people in the world are puting their trust and their money in dominican economy...

Whatever other extremist say is pure b.s.

Thanks pld... 100 more years of prosperity

Too bad the majority of the People whose opinion REALLY MATTERS and can Vote on May 20th, Tthe DOMINICAN PEOPLE don't feel that way!

No josie hiede vivo..

55%% agrre witth. Them.
They will let you know this may 20th..

No josie hiede vivo..

55%% agrre witth. Them.
They will let you know this may 20th..

Are you so NERVOUS that you had to post them thing twice?

The bet's on, Ron.
I was hoping for enough money to retire on, but I guess it's the thought that counts.

Josie Hiede Vivo,

Don't forget your Sunday mission . it's time for you to go PRD headquarters with your Limpia Bota kit!

Lol kennyb.. I am cracking up!

Only Guachupita's finest limpia bota will do. Arriba Josie hiede vivo. LOL.

Written by: ohhhvictor, 29 Apr 2012 6:39 AM
From: United States
Excellent post by tschotschua...
You are 100 % right...
------------------------------------------

OhhhVictor, I am not telling nothing new ... people will put their Money that where their heart is (!)
That is why they put El Burro on a pasture that he may eats some grass instead of money ;-)

And don't dare you to ask Josean, you should know better, he prefers a Bigger Burro ... never a Metro, never in his insane mind lifetime.

Josean, by the way, why are you so afraid ? Do you think that El Burro will be a Big Lost (?)

tschotschua,
If it's not a rude question, can I ask; why do you put question-marks and exclamation-arks in parenthesis thus (?)

Not at all RoyStone,

Those symbols in parenthesis are just hypothetical or/and rhetoric to be intended.

Toshiba,

It’s better to make an HONEST living shining shoes that STEALING from the Dominican Taxpayers like Lie-onel, Danilo, Margarita and Felix Bautista!

Don't be rude and answer it..
:) Josie hiede vivo..tshotschua is asking you a question..

yes, josean, answer it. just like victor answered my question regarding cheesecakes. still trying to figure out how to use the google function, victor?

Dread,

Toshiba is writing a computer program for Ms.Viceky’s confection of your cheesecake,

I prefer Guava and you dread?

Written by: josean, 29 Apr 2012 11:44 AM
From: United States, comesolo.com/

Toshiba,

It’s better to make an HONEST living shining shoes that STEALING from the Dominican Taxpayers like Lie-onel, Danilo, Margarita and Felix Bautista!
---------------------------------------------------------------

Josean, I will say more power to you if you make a honest living by shining shoes or being food for El Burro (!) I am not so despicable, I give to each his own (^_^)

Ufff.. another good answer for jossie hiede vivo and the pothead...
:)

Toshiba,


Like Muhammad Ali I also know how to "Rope a Dope!"

you need a lot of rope for victor. that is a major league version of a dope.

Written by: josean, 29 Apr 2012 12:13 PM
From: United States, cuidado.dedocracia.do/

Toshiba,

Like Muhammad Ali I also know how to "Rope a Dope!"
---------------------------------------------------------------------

If you are so a bright guy, why do you advocate so much for El Burro (?)
may I ask, what's left behind ... perhaps you are so bright, nothing more, nothing else, just Bright (!)

Toshiba,

I not Bright at all…. I am as dumb as they come!

If was Bright I would have sold myself out to Narco-Lie-onel and Felix Bautista like you, that's were all the money is!

Josean, what can I say ... there you are ;-)

Here's a much more accurate economic report


Una mayoría de dominicanos (61%) continúa valorando de manera negativa las  condiciones de la economía del país, pero según la última encuesta Gallup-HOY esta percepción ha disminuido de manera ligera con relación al mes pasado (66.5%). También subió la valoración positiva, de 17.3% a 19.7%, así como quienes la estiman regular, de 16.1% a 19.5%.

The improvements mentioned are based on government BS but the pessimism is fact.

"Written by: tschotschua, 29 Apr 2012 1:09 PM

From: Germany, Koblenz, Rheinland-Pfalz

Josean, what can I say ... there you are ;-)"


Toshiba at least your honest and admit you have sold your soul to the PURPLE DEVILS!

Josean, I have been always honest and my love for the truth goes beyond that what you can ever realize ... now, you assume, I am a Burro to sell my soul, so hopeless I can*t hope any better from you (!)

"The bet's on, Ron.
I was hoping for enough money to retire on, but I guess it's the thought that counts."

No, I wouldn't want to take too much of your money! You'll probably need it for your eventual return trip from Melbourne!.The void created by nothing to complain about over there, will impel you to consider returning once again, to enjoy the chaos, disorder, commotion, confusion, and mess that typify the DR and SD, in particular!....Don't believe me?....We'll see!

The Rating means speculative. There is a considerable risk, so do your homework before investing. If I had money invested in this market I would be very concerned about an administration change and the impact on the exchange rates. I don't prefer one corupt SOB over the other. The both have dirty hands. As for the Burro, when the grass is all dead and dried up they will put sunglasses on him so everything will look green. So watch out!

Josie hiede vive vivo sold his soul. To el burro...
So he is more burro than the burro..
:)

victor, has it ever dawned upon you that nobody here takes you seriously?