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Manny Machado homers twice in his second game as O's beat Royals

Orioles third baseman Manny Machado cranks his first home run… (Gene Sweeney Jr., Baltimore…)
August 10, 2012|By Eduardo A. Encina | The Baltimore Sun

After registering his first hit in his big league debut Thursday night, Manny Machado expressed disappointment that his milestone didn't come in an Orioles win.

But in his second major league game Friday against the Kansas City Royals, the 20-year-old not only helped the O's to victory. He hit his way into the franchise's record books.


Machado whipped Camden Yards into a frenzy by hitting his first two career home runs in a 7-1 win, becoming the youngest Oriole to hit two in a game.

"It's one of those nights that you're really honored and lucky just to watch," Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. "I look at it more from a city of Baltimore standpoint. He'll put it behind him and realize there's another challenge tomorrow."

At 20 years, 35 days old, Machado became the 12th youngest player in major league history to have a multihomer game. Angels outfielder Mike Trout homered twice in a game last August when he was just 12 days younger than Machado.

Following Machado's second homer in the sixth inning — a three-run shot that created the final margin — the announced crowd of 17,277 gave Machado a standing ovation and the chants of “‘Man-ny, Man-ny” filled the ballpark. Teammate Adam Jones pushed the rookie to the top step of the dugout for a curtain call.

“It was great,” Machado said. “I've dreamed about that my whole life, about going out there and getting that curtain call and second game in the big leagues I get it. I was great.”

In two games as a major leaguer, Machado, called up from Double-A Bowie before Thursday's game, is 4-for-8 with a triple, two homers and four RBIs.

The win, also backed by a sparking starting pitching performance by rookie Miguel Gonzalez, kept the Orioles (61-52) in the top American League wild-card spot

“Yeah, it's a new era,” Machado said. “We haven't won in a long time and this ballclub has been winning without me. And hopefully now that I'm up here I can contribute to the team and help them start winning. Buck brought me up for a reason and it was to help this team. So I'm going to do anything I can to help this team and try to make a playoff [game].”

Machado, who had two hits in his debut, hit both of his homers on two-strike breaking balls from Royals right-hander Luke Hochevar.

He smacked his first big league homer in the fifth-inning, taking a full-count slider from Hochevar into the left-field stands.

“It was the best feeling ever," Machado said of circling the bases for the first time. "The crowd here loves me and for them to support me like that, after my first home run, it just felt great.



“The best feeling ever.”

Machado became the youngest Orioles player to homer in a home since Jim Palmer — who was 19 years, 213 days old — homered in a pre-DH era game on May 16, 1965.

Machado came to the plate again in the sixth after Nate McLouth hit an RBI double to make the score 4-1.

This time, with two on and one out, Machado took a 1-2 curveball to the same spot in the stands, a towering fly ball into the Baltimore sky and into club history.

“He's going to be a nice young hitter,” Royals manager Ned Yost said. “You can classify those pitches as mistakes, but we made other mistakes today that were popped up or fouled back. He took advantage of it. That's the mark of a nice young hitter.”

With his second homer, Machado broke Boog Powell's record for the youngest Oriole to have a mulit-homer game. Powell was 20 years, 258 days old when he accomplished that feat on May 2, 1962. He also became just the second Oriole to two homers in a game within his first two career games, joining Curt Blefary, who homered twice in his second game on April 17, 1965 against Boston.

Millersville native Adam Corder, 15, sitting in the 14th row of Section 78, caught both of Machado's home run balls.

After the game, Corder met Machado, who was surprised to hear in the dugout that the same fan caught both his homers.

"I was like, what? That's crazy," Machado said.

Lost in the excitement was one of Gonzalez's best outings as an Oriole. The 28-year-old right-hander held the Royals to one run on six hits over a career-high eight innings.

Over his last two starts, Gonzalez (4-3) has allowed just one run over 15 innings, pitching to an 0.60 ERA.

"I stayed aggressive,” Gonzalez said. “I stayed in and out, changing pitches. That's what helped me out tonight. … Changing speeds helped me out. These guys are great hitters. That's what I like doing. I like throwing the changeup early in the count."

Gonzalez's only mistake of the night was a first-pitch fastball to Royals catcher Salvador Perez in the top of the second, a delivery that Perez sent into the right-field stands.

But Orioles second baseman Omar Quintanilla gave the O's a 2-1 lead in the bottom half of the second inning, his second homer of the season, on a 3-1 pitch from Hochevar.

“It was pretty big,” Quintanilla said. “After that we took the lead and the team did a great job of putting some extra runs on the board. [I] can't say enough about Miguel. He did a great job tonight, and overall a great team effort.”

After the game — after Machado received a shaving cream pie to the face from Jones and infielder Robert Andino — the talk still focused on the rookie's big night.

Said Gonzalez: “His first two [homers] in the major leagues. There's going to be more coming. I'm real happy for him."

“Wow, he's done an awesome job so far,” Quintanilla said. “For somebody his age to come up and do what he's done, it's incredible. And you know he's got a lot of years to go, and I wish him the best.”

eencina@baltsun.com
twitter.com/EddieInTheYard

The KID and the Legend.

May 29, 2010

Draft diary: For Manny Machado, shades of A-Rod

By Scott Boeck, USA TODAY


Every week until the June draft, Sports Weekly will profile a projected top pick. This week: Brito Miami Private School shortstop Manny Machado.

LAST WEEK: OF LeVon Washington

The comparisons are entirely unfair, and yet so inevitable.

CAPTIONBy Al Diaz, The Miami Herald

Manny Machado plays shortstop and stands 6-2, an inch shorter than his idol, Alex Rodriguez.

They were both born in the USA to Dominican parents and grew up bilingual in single-parent households in Miami. And they both have earned acclaim as jewels of their respective drafts.

A- Rod went No. 1 to the Seattle Mariners in 1993. Machado might not get that distinction, considering the presence of catching phenom Bryce Harper among players eligible for the June 7 draft, but he's likely to get taken soon after.

The question is whether Machado will remain a middle infielder. Power-hitting players of his size often get moved to the corners or the outfield.

"I've played that position my whole life, and it's my favorite position, so I would love to stay there," says Machado, who weighs 180 pounds.

His ability to remain around that weight will determine his future spot, says Rodriguez, a shortstop until shifting to third upon his trade to the New York Yankees in February 2004.

"The key is how much he weighs," A- Rod says. "That's important."

More so are his tools, which coach Lazaro Fundora says cover the spectrum from soft hands, strong arm and superior athletic ability to outstanding range as a fielder. Machado is also smart and knowledgeable about game situations.

The offensive part of his game is actually ahead of his glove, Fundora says, to the point Machado was recently walked intentionally with the bases loaded and his team ahead by six runs. He was batting .642 with 12 homers, 56 RBI and 17 steals in 27 games.

It's not as if Fundora has not been exposed to top talent before, having previously coached Florida Marlins rookie first baseman Gaby Sanchez. Plus, he saw a bit of that Rodriguez kid back in the day.

"I know everybody compares ( Machado) to A- Rod. I'm not the kind of guy who does that," Fundora says. "But I remember playing against A- Rod (in high school), and it's sort of the same feeling. When you saw A- Rod strut on the field or just stretching out, you already knew he was something special, that he was above everybody else."

Machado and Rodriguez also share an agent, of sorts. Scott Boras negotiated A- Rod's $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers. Machado says Boras' agency is advising him.

Machado, 17, has committed to Florida International and says he's leaning toward attending college, but he also would like to get his mother, Rosa Nunez, grandmother and older sister into a better financial situation. Nunez works at an export company.

"If everything goes as planned and (I sign as a pro), I would like to pay back my family what they've given me," Machado says. "But at the end, (financially) it's both going to be the same."

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The decline of Alex Rodriguez


October, 16, 2012
OCT 16
2:20
PM ET
By David Schoenfield | ESPN.com


AP Photo/Matt Slocum
It seems unlikely that Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez will ever regain his MVP form.

It's always a soap opera with Alex Rodriguez during his tenure with the New York Yankees: From the brawl with Jason Varitek in 2004 to slapping the ball out of Bronson Arroyo's glove in the playoffs to the time Joe Torre hit him eighth in the 2006 playoffs to admitting PED usage to Kate Hudson to the Popcorn Incident.

Call it As the Alex Turns or Days of Our A-Rod.

This time, it's strictly about baseball, and his apparent inability to hit one. He's 3-for-23 in the postseason, including 0-for-18 against right-handers with 12 strikeouts. He's hardly the only Yankee struggling, but when you're the highest-paid player in the sport, the focus goes to you.

Ian O'Connor writes that this is an opportunity for Rodriguez to step up in Derek Jeter's absence:
Rodriguez? He's been demoted in the lineup, pinch-hit for, and benched for a clinching Division Series game. How's that for a Triple Crown?

But despite his pathetic at-bats this month, Rodriguez happens to be the Yankees' only position player whose career measures up to the magnitude of Jeter's. It's hard to ask the likes of Raul Ibanez to fill the Jeter void, never mind the likes of Jayson Nix.

Meanwhile, ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski writes we shouldn't be surprised by Rodriguez's declining productivity:
Projected after his age 24 season, his final one in Seattle, ZiPS projected A-Rod to have a .779 OPS in 2012, given knowledge of the Yankee Stadium factors and the level of offense in 2012, compared with his actual OPS of .783. After his last year in Texas, ZiPS projects a 2012 OPS of .766. ZiPS projected an .824 OPS for A-Rod coming into this season, but that was a function of actual league offense and Yankee Stadium park factors being lower than expected, the reconfigured A-Rod projected 2012 OPS being only .799.

In other words, A-Rod's decline in recent years, culminating in his career-worst 2012 season, is in no way anything unusual or unexpected.

Not surprisingly, Dan's projections aren't kind to Rodriguez in upcoming seasons. Rodriguez debuated with the Mariners when he was 18, played his first full season at age 20 (turning 21). He's one of just 13 players to accumulate at least 4,000 plate appearances through his age-25 season.

Met Ott. Tore up his knee at 37 and was done.

Robin Yount. Retired at 36. Hit just .257 over final four seasons.

Al Kaline. Played through age 39. Had .877 OPS through age 32, .798 after.

Ty Cobb. Won 11 batting titles, but none after age 32.

Alex Rodriguez. OPS totals since 2007: 1.067, .965, .933, .847, .823, .783.

Vada Pinson. Hit .223 at age 36, his final season.

Edgar Renteria. His last season was 2011, when he was 34.

Cesar Cedeno. One of the great young players of all time, was done at age 35.

Mickey Mantle. Bad knees. Retired at 36.

Buddy Lewis. On a potential Hall of Fame path when World War II started. Suffered a hip injury in 1947 and retired to run his auto dealership in North Carolina. Returned in 1949 at age 32, but retired again after one season.

Sherry Magee. A hitting star with the Phillies from 1904 to 1914, traded to the Braves in 1915, broke his collarbone and had other ailments, was done at 34, although played seven seasons in the minors.

George Davis. Turn-of-the-century star was an effective player through age 35.
Roberto Alomar. Finished fourth in the 2001 MVP vote with Cleveland at age 33, but fell off a cliff and was washed up by 36.

Other players in the top 20 of most plate appearances through 25 include Andruw Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Johnny Bench and Jimmie Foxx, none of whom had much value after turning 30. No. 21, however, is Hank Aaron, one of the best "old" players ever.

Now, all of this was known when the Yankees signed Rodriguez to that 10-year, $275 million extension in December of 2007. He was 32 at the time, but coming off a monster, MVP season where he hit 54 home runs and drove in 156 runs. Still, as Dan's ZiPS system indicated, even the greatest players start aging in their late 30s. At least those not named Barry Bonds. There were clear reasons to expect A-Rod's production to be significantly less in his late 30s, let alone in his 40s.

It was a ridiculous contract at the time and now it's a horrible contract. There is no sign that Rodriguez will suddenly reverse course next season. You can see many signs of A-Rod's slowing bat speed, from pitchers no longer afraid to pitch him inside to various analysts breaking down his swing. The numbers support a player who has expanded the strike zone, which I believe suggests a player "cheating" to catch up to pitches, and losing plate discipline in the process. Check out the percentage of A-Rod's swings on pitches outside the strike zone in recent years:

2009: 21.1 percent
2010: 25.3 percent
2011: 27.0 percent
2012: 31.3 percent

In 2007, Rodriguez had 120 strikeouts and 95 walks. In 2012, those figures were 116 and 51 (in nearly 200 fewer PAs).

Rodriguez has five years remaining on his deal. Ignoring the fact that he won't be a $28 million player in 2013, the bigger question: How many years does he have left as a decent player, regardless of salary? One? Two? At some point in the future, the Yankees may have to bite the bullet and eat a lot of salary -- or risk playing a guy who no longer helps them win.

I know A-Rod is a guy everyone loves to kick when he's down; he's more punching bag than a player vigorously reviled like Bonds. Still, I find this playoffs a little sad, the declining superstar as a shell of his former self. It makes me think back to 1996, when Rodriguez was a young kid with the Mariners, lashing home runs and doubles in the gap, the prodigy with a future we could only attempt to envision.

Dan Szymborski, whose ZiPS projections are the best in the business, has a take on the predictability of A-Rod's decline, featuring a projection of his performance over the next five years. Here's a sample (warning, you may want to have a barf bag handy):

Projections (BA/OBP/SLG, HR)

2013: .256/.339/.425, 16
2014: .251/.328/.405, 13

Years 3, 4 and 5 are even worse.

29 HRs plus his 647= 676. Assume 30 HRs for the remaining three years of his contract and it will be very close to 700 for a career for A-Rod. 676 + 30= 706. That means he will not even match Ruth's 714!




Rank Player (yrs, age) Home Runs
1. Barry Bonds (22) 762 L
2. Hank Aaron+ (23) 755 R
3. Babe Ruth+ (22) 714 L
4. Willie Mays+ (22) 660 R
5. Alex Rodriguez (19, 36) 647 R


But A-Rod could produce an outstanding season or two and make this interesting.

Let's say he goes:

30, 25,20,18,15=108 more. 647 + 108= 755


However, the odds say he falls well short of Bonds and Aaron.

by Eno Sarris - October 19, 2012

Some are certain Alex Rodriguez has played his last game as a Yankee. You’ll find no such certainty here. There’s all that money left on his contract, and though it’s a sunk cost, the 37-year-old can still provide non-zero value in the Bronx over the next five years. In other words, there’s no way it makes sense for the Yankees to swallow the entire remaining $119 million on his contract for him to play somewhere else.

But would it make sense for the team to eat some of the contract? It would, but only if the front office believes they can get Rodriguez-like production for less than they would save by jettisoning him. Then the non-on-the-field value of trading him away —- call it chemistry concerns, if you have to —- can tip the balance.

To do this, we’ll have to do a quick-and-dirty projection of Rodriguez for next year. MARCEL may only be a monkey, but he hangs with most projection systems well enough by using a 5/4/3 weighting of the past three years. Let’s use A-Rod’s last three years of wins above replacement totals. Though that only provides us a rough, top-down view of his value, using those numbers will help us wrap his defensive and playing time issues into one number. A quick MARCEL-like projection using those numbers produces about a 3.3 WAR value for next season. MARCEL projected Rodriguez for a .348 wOBA this year, and he managed a .342 — so the monkey has thrown this particular dart pretty well, recently. We have to age that number, though, so let’s call him a three-win third baseman in 2013.

Some might scoff at the number. Rodriguez only barely put up more than two wins in 2012, and he was 37 years old. When he was 36, though, he managed a good defensive year and offense that was 25% better than the league and was worth twice as much as he was worth at 37. The year before that he was worse. Aging isn’t a linear process even if we project it as such. A healthier year could easily produce better numbers. A year facing lesser pitchers or in an easier division could produce better numbers. A year with better luck with the glove would produce better numbers. A change of scenery could help — we all like going to work with people who respect us and think we are useful members of the workplace.

And as bad as Rodriguez has looked in the playoffs, there are reasons to think this particular nadir is temporary. For one, Rodriguez hit the ball harder in 2012 than he did in 2011 — his batted ball distance on homers and flies jumped from 275 to 299 feet. And despite another injury, he put in 100+ more plate appearances in 2012 than in 2011. He also stole a few more bags in 2012. His overall offense was still 14% better than league average. It wasn’t all bad.

But his platoon splits. Yes, Rodriguez has looked bad against righties late this season —- and really not up to his lofty standards all season. He was below-average against righties for the first time in his career in 2012. Zoom out and look at his platoon splits since he joined the Yankees, though, and it’s not so clear that he’s already strictly a platoon player:



For a while there, he was better against righties than lefties. He has a career reverse platoon split (140 wRC+ v LHP, 148 v RHP). Though that’s not really enough reason to say he actually has a true-talent reverse platoon split — the sample for that has to be huge — it might be enough to say he hasn’t shown a bad traditional platoon split during his career, and this current traditional platoon split might be a one-year blip. In his first year with the Yankees, Rodriguez was only 18% better than the league against righties, but he managed to right the ship for some stellar years, and a muted version of that process could happen again. And are we really torn up about offense that was 5% worse than league average against righties if he’s going to be a decent third baseman who can still tear up lefties?

If you’re still not convinced he’s a true-talent three-win guy, let’s try this from with a more pessimistic projection. Dan Szymborski, the father of ZiPs, produced this slash line as a first go at a 2013 projection for Rodriguez: .256/.339/.425. Approximate a wOBA from that slash line, and you get a .334 wOBA. That’s a healthy decline from this season’s .342, but it would still have been above average this year (.315 wOBA). The joy of having a wOBA now is that we can produce a few rough projections based on different playing time:

PA Batting Fielding Replacement Positional WAR
550 9.09 18.3 2 2.9
500 8.26 16.7 1.8 2.7
450 7.43 15 1.6 2.4
400 6.61 13 1.4 2.1

What’s nice about breaking it up this way is that you can see how each assertion affects the final result. He could be anywhere from a two-to-three win player depending on mostly his playing time and defense — more than his bat. There are teams out there that might salivate over an average bat that could play average defense at third base for an average amount of PAs — Philadelphia, Florida and Anaheim have been in the discussion so far. Though the most delicious rumor is Vernon Wells for Alex Rodriguez, Philadelphia and Florida are extra-motivated by the fact that neither of them had a third baseman that managed to accrue two wins last season. (Alberto Callaspo had 2.7 of them for the Angels.)

Let’s start at three wins, since it’s in the range of our more optimistic and pessimistic projections. A generic free-agent third baseman who can put up three wins might expect about $40 million for five years on the open market — you typically want to age that late-30s position player about .7 wins per year and that means you’d pay for eight wins (at five million per) during those five years. Rodriguez is due $119 million in the next five years, so could the Yankees give $80 million to a team willing to take the third baseman? The other team would want a discount, most likely. What if the Yankees throw in $85 million? $90 million? (They’re willing to talk, maybe.)

Even that last number would give them $30 million of savings in the next five years, as well as a three-win hole at third right now. Their trading partner would get a three-win third baseman for five years at less than market price.

If Alex Rodriguez is only worth two wins next season, it gets more complicated. Then a five-year deal with .7 aging would expect to pay for about four wins, and he’d be worse than replacement after the third year. Then other teams might only see about $20 million of value in Alex Rodriguez, and after a discount, the Yankees would have to pay over $100 million to save ten million or so. That doesn’t seem like a good deal for either side.

There are ways for the Yankees to cobble together two-to-three wins for less than six million dollars next year, but none of them are guarantees and it’s not easy. The best in-house option is probably former second baseman David Adams. According to Brian Cartwright’s OLIVER, the twenty-five year old’s work last year in his second attempt Double-A — .306/.385/.450 with eight home runs in 383 plate appearances — had a major league equivalency of .278/.343/.415. It’d be folly to project him for that or anything, but if you put the young righty in some sort of a platoon with the 35-year-old lefty Eric Chavez — who cost less than two million dollars last season once the performance bonuses kicked in — you could see how you could get close to three wins. Chavez managed 1.8 wins in 313 PA last season, and with an adequate glove or adequate bat (maybe not even both at the same time) to keep him healthy, they could make it work.

If you squint hard enough, you can see a place where a trade could make sense for the Yankees and their trade partner. There are teams that see Alex Rodriguez as an upgrade over their current situations if the price is right. And if the Yankees think they can save some money and clear up their roster and clubhouse, and want to keep their manager, they might pay another team $80 million (in some combination of cash and/or bad contracts) in order to accomplish those goals.

Maybe this trade will happen — we’ve hopefuly used believable parameters to find situations that work for both sides — but $80-plus million is a lot of money to pay another organization to take an asset off your hands that has non-zero value on the field.

Atabey, did i not post that ARod was great during the regular season, but when the money was on the table ,the guy was useless?

You're too harsh Dready.

Alex is dealing with the affects of a broken hand; and that's very difficult to come back from within a few months time. Notice his very low power numbers after coming back from the DL, and his poor numbers versus right hand pitching in general. Hernandez is a right handed pitcher, so perhaps there's some lingering apprehension going against right handed pitching. Only natural.


If next year his power numbers stay south of where they where up until the hand injury; then it'll be high tension times in the Bronx. Yankees still think A-Rod is an above average 3rd basemen. No longer elite, but better than the average 3rd basemen. 700 hrs and 3,000 hits plus 2000 rbi, 2000 runs, -the last three all possible next season, makes Alex news for the Yankees. He wants those career milestones wearing a Yankees uniform So he's not going anywhere.

As for his playoff shortfalls, it's interesting. Just look at the numbers compared to Jeter. Basically, Alex's fall from his average yearly numbers is greater, but the overall numbers DON'T match the perception.

A Friendly Reminder About A-Rod and October

by Dave Cameron - October 9, 2012

In the first two games against Baltimore, Alex Rodriguez is 1 for 9 with a walk and five strikeouts. Last night, he came to the plate five times and made five outs, though his first inning double play was a line drive that could have easily been a base hit had it gone a foot further to the left. Still, with his game-ending strikeout that followed a seventh inning whiff with the tying run on first base, the “Alex Rodriguez is Not Clutch” narrative is popping up again. And, after just two games, some are calling for A-Rod to be dropped in the batting order due to his regular October slumps.

The problem, as always, is that the evidence just doesn’t support the storyline.

Including the first two games of this series, Alex Rodriguez has come to bat 309 times in the playoffs. In those 309 plate appearances, he’s hit .271/.380/.484, good for a 127 wRC+. That’s a little worse than his 147 mark for his career, but of course the pitchers one faces are better in October, and sustaining a 127 wRC+ against high quality opposition is nothing to sneeze at.

For comparison, Derek Jeter — regarded as one of the most clutch players to play the game — has hit .309/.374/.465 in his postseason career, which works out to a 122 wRC+. Though you’d never know it based on the portrayals of their postseason careers, Alex Rodriguez has hit better in the playoffs than Derek Jeter.

Perception, of course, has a lot to do with expectations, and we expect Rodriguez to hit better than Jeter, because he’s simply been a better hitter over his career. And Jeter’s 122 wRC+ in the playoffs is basically a dead-on match to his 124 wRC+ during the regular season, so he’s done a better job of matching the expectations he’s set with his own regular season performance. Relative to his own baseline, Jeter has performed in October than Rodriguez, so there is some merit to the idea that Rodriguez’s October performances have been more disappointing relative to his own established performances. But that doesn’t change the fact that his October performance has overall been pretty good.

Of course, part of the criticism against A-Rod isn’t that his overall performance is poor, but that he comes up short in big situations. By grouping all of his 309 playoff plate appearances together, we’re not addressing the idea that he could be hitting home runs in games that are already decided while striking out with the bases loaded when his team’s have been down by a run. So, let’s go beyond just overall postseason batting lines and look at the Win Probability data, which takes the situation into account.

For his regular season career, Rodriguez has created +53.29 WPA in 11,163 plate appearances. If we simply scale that ratio back to 309 plate appearances, we would have expected regular season A-Rod to produce +1.47 WPA during his postseason run. He’s actually produced +1.72 WPA, meaning that his context-specific offensive performance in the playoffs has been better than his own level of production during the regular season. But, we already know he’s hit a bit worse during October over his career as a whole, so how is that possible?

Because A-Rod has actually been far more clutch in October than he has in the regular season. Our clutch measure here on the site essentially measures the amount of wins that were added or lost through your performance in high leverage situations relative to low leverage ones. During his postseason career, Rodriguez has a clutch score of +0.72. Essentially, 40% of his postseason offensive WPA in October has come from performing better in important situations than he has when the situation isn’t as critical.

The data is pretty clear on this point – there’s no real evidence that Rodriguez continually comes up short in critical situations in the playoffs. In the regular season, that has been true – he’s got a -8.22 clutch score for his career during the regular season, so you could make a pretty decent case that he earned the reputation with his own struggles in big moments. But, that simply hasn’t carried over to his postseason performance, where he’s performed well both from a context-neutral perspective and from a context-specific perspective.

By the way, just for fun, you know what Derek Jeter’s postseason Clutch score is? -1.38. Because of when his distribution of hits have come, Jeter’s actually been an offensive negative during his playoff career even with that 122 wRC+. If you’re looking for a Yankee whose postseason context-specific performance is significantly worse than his overall line would suggest, the evidence points towards Jeter, not Rodriguez.

Now, we shouldn’t actually believe that Derek Jeter is not a clutch player. He wasn’t used as the foil for this example because I’m trying to make any kind of point about him as a player. Jeter’s a great player who has had a great career, including a lot of success in the postseason. He deserves most of the accolades that come his way. He’s a first ballot Hall of Famer and one of the very best shortstops in the history of baseball.

But, the actual evidence from Jeter and Rodriguez’s postseason performances simply don’t match the storylines that have been created about them. While Jeter is lauded for his postseason play, Rodriguez is vilified. The evidence simply doesn’t support those ideas. Both are great players. Have have hit well in October. Rodriguez has just hit a bit better, especially when you account for context.