Tanks are rolling unto the streets: Either a massive crack down with many dead will ensue or Mubarak will have to make concessions. Will the Army side with the Dictator or the people?




Protesters have defied the curfew and begun setting vehicles and buildings alight

Egypt Unrest

* Egypt unrest Live
* Egyptians losing fear of regime
* Analysis: Why Egypt matters
* Can Mubarak be toppled?

Egypt has extended its curfew to all cities as anti-government demonstrators in Cairo besiege key buildings, including the foreign ministry and the state broadcaster.

The headquarters of the governing NDP party has been set ablaze.

President Hosni Mubarak, facing the biggest challenge to his authority of his 31 years in power, has ordered the army onto the streets of Cairo.

Earlier, it was announced he would make a statement, but he is yet to appear.

BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner said: "Every minute that goes by without the president making that address to the nation makes him look weaker and will convince people he is losing his grip."

At least 18 protesters - 13 in Suez and five in Cairo - were killed in the violence on Friday, medical sources said. That brings the death toll to at least 26 since the protests began on Tuesday.

An unconfirmed report from the Reuters news agency said as many as 1,030 people may have been injured on Friday.

Military helicopters

Across the country, tens of thousands of protesters turned out after Friday prayers and clashed with police.


Up until now, President Mubarak has enjoyed the support of the armed forces.

He was, after all, a career air force officer suddenly catapulted to the presidency when Anwar Sadat was assassinated in 1981.

But if these protests continue and intensify, there are bound to be senior voices within the military tempted to urge him to stand down.

This is the most serious popular challenge to his 30-year rule that anyone can remember.

* Egypt's army: The deciding factor

The curfew is now in effect, but live television pictures from Cairo continue to show large crowds on the streets.

Correspondents in Cairo say military helicopters are circling overhead.

Some of those breaking the curfew targeted the state broadcasting building, which is guarded by the armed forces.

Also targeted was the headquarters of the ruling NDP party - a major symbol of President Mubarak's rule regime. The BBC's Wyre Davies reported from Cairo that there was no sign of the police or military as the building was enveloped in flames.

Demonstrators have been cheering for the army, while the latter is not getting into confrontations with the people, correspondents say.

Internet and phone services - both mobile and landline - have been severely disrupted, although protesters are using proxies to work around the restrictions.

Mobile operator Vodafone Egypt said in a statement that it was obliged by law to suspend services at the request of the authorities.

Reports say Egyptian opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei has been placed under house arrest. Earlier, he was soaked by water cannon and surrounded by police as he joined protesters on the streets of Cairo.

In Sinai, BBC Arabic said its sources reported that Bedouins were besieging a police station and armed men had taken control of the road leading to Rafah, in the Palestinian territory of Gaza.
Continue reading the main story


There seems little doubt the US administration is playing catch-up, and is in a very awkward position”


image of Mark Mardell Mark Mardell BBC North America editor

* Mardell's America: Obama's caution on Egypt is winning no friends

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has appealed to Egypt to do "everything" to restrain the security forces, urging the government to reverse its block on mobile phone and internet communications.

She also said the protesters should not use violence.

The US counts Egypt as an ally in the Middle East and has so far been cautious about taking sides. However, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Washington would review its aid to Egypt based on events in the coming days.

Egypt is the fourth largest recipient of American aid, after Afghanistan, Pakistan and Israel.

Meanwhile, the US is advising its citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Egypt, and several airlines - including Egyptian and BA - have cancelled or rescheduled flights.
Inspired by Tunisia

The unrest follows an uprising in Tunisia two weeks ago, in which President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was toppled after 23 years in power.
Map of Cairo protests (28 January 2011)

Egypt has many of the same social and political problems that brought about the unrest in Tunisia - rising food prices, high unemployment and anger at official corruption.

After Friday prayers, tens of thousands of people joined protests in Cairo and other cities to demand the end of Mr Mubarak's 30-year rule.

They shouted, "Down, down with Mubarak" and, "The people want the regime to fall".

At several locations, riot police responded by firing rubber bullets and tear gas, and by using water cannon. BBC Arabic reporter Assad Sawey, in Cairo, said he was arrested and beaten by plainclothes policemen.

"They took my camera away and when they arrested me, they started beating me with steel bars, the ones used here for slaughtering animals," he said.

The BBC condemned the assault, saying it was a deliberate attack by police against which the BBC would forcefully protest.

"It is vital that all journalists, whether from the BBC or elsewhere, are allowed to do their job of bringing accurate, impartial eye witness reports to audiences around the world without fear," said BBC Global News Director Peter Horrocks.

There were also reports of clashes between protesters and police in Alexandria, Mansoura and Aswan, as well as Minya and Assiut south of Cairo, and al-Arish in the Sinai peninsula.

Judeo,

Here's a summary of what the US thinking on the developments in Egypt.

Obama's caution on Egypt is winning no friends

Mark Mardell | 19:02 UK time, Friday, 28 January 2011
A fire burns at the headquarters of the ruling National Democratic Party in Cairo

President Barack Obama's administration is putting pressure on the Egyptian government to change. But it is not backing a change of government. It is a critical difference.

The president's spokesman, Robert Gibbs, has said that the administration is reviewing the money it gives to Egypt. The country gets around $1.3bn (£800m) a year in military aid alone. Mere millions go to supporting democratic movements and other civilian aid.

But in a performance that did not suggest the administration had yet alighted upon a firm policy, beyond denouncing violence, the word Mr Gibbs used repeatedly was "monitoring". He suggested that if the images we are all watching continued, aid might be reduced or halted. But it scarcely felt like a strong threat. The president has not spoken to President Hosni Mubarak. The White House is watching, and waiting. The coin is still spinning, and the administration is not eager to make a wager based on how it will fall.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has also been speaking. Her first comments were about the demonstrations themselves. She has said that she was "deeply concerned" by the police violence and urged the government (in other words, President Mubarak) to restrain them. She said the steps taken against social media should be reversed.

Then she went on to draw lessons. There were "deep grievances" and reform was "critical" and "imperative", she said. The Egyptian government should see its people as partners, not as a threat. This is a change of tone, not so much from the past day or two, but from what went before.

There is plenty of evidence for the prosecution. I have just watched an Egyptian journalist on BBC World television say that the tear gas canisters fired by police were made in the US. Over dramatic pictures of billowing smoke, he says America likes strong men without democratic backing, because "it is easy to pick up the phone and tell the leader what is expected from them".

In the Washington Post, Jackson Diehl argues that while President George W Bush pushed for democratic reform, Barack Obama, believing he was being more pragmatic, embraced Mr Mubarak. Mr Diehl says it may be remembered as "one of the most short-sighted and wrongheaded policies the United States has ever pursued in the Middle East".

So some see Mrs Clinton's statement today and Mr Obama's yesterday as furiously back-pedalling away from a policy doomed to failure.

Yasser M El-Shimy is an expert on US policy in the Middle East, who lived in Egypt for 25 years but is now in the process of becoming an American citizen. He tells me that the Obama approach is the wrong side of a thin line.

If there is a democratic revolution, US-Egyptian relationships are in for a world of trouble. They think they can walk a fine line but the Egyptian public is listening to what they have been saying about the government being stable. There will be some anti-US sentiment among the protesters because they believe the US has been trying to prop up the regime until the last moment.

Some are openly arguing the opposite point of view, that democracy would "open up the flood gates" to Islamic revolution.

But one British think tank, Quilliam argues fear of the banned Muslim Brotherhood is over-played, not least by the organisation itself.

Brotherhood claims to be the "only real opposition" to dictatorial regimes in the Middle East should be viewed with a considerable amount of scepticism in future. Given the opportunity, many people in the Arab countries clearly prefer civil, non-sectarian parties over Islamists.

Mr El-Shimy agrees, telling me the idea of the Muslim Brotherhood lurking in the shadows waiting to take over is false. He argues that it is Mr Mubarak's policy of regression that has allowed it to flourish, and that in a real democracy it would be a power in the land, but not the dominant one.

There seems little doubt the US administration is playing catch-up, and is in a very awkward position. It is not ready to abandon its octogenarian ally of 30 years, but it is urging him to change and change quickly. This is all moving very quickly but at the moment both the White House and the US state department are being ignored by their allies, while not going far enough to make new friends.

Egypt unrest a dilemma for Obama

Mark Mardell | 00:43 UK time, Friday, 28 January 2011

egypt.jpgUS President Barack Obama has urged both sides in Egypt not to use violence but has thrown his weight behind change.

"There are certain core values that we believe in as Americans that we believe are universal: freedom of speech, freedom of expression, people being able to use any social networking or any other mechanisms to communicate with each other and express their concerns. That is no less true in the Arab world than it is here in the US," the president said.

But he faces a dilemma - one other presidents have faced in South America, Asia and indeed the Arab world. Which are more important: timeless principles or reliable allies?

Egypt is important for the US. It is the guardian of the still critical Suez Canal and is the most populous country in the region. It was the first country in that part of the globe to make peace with Israel and, from the perspective of US policy makers, a force for moderation and reason.

It gets $1.5bn (£942m) in aid from the US, just behind Israel, Pakistan and Afghanistan. When Mr Obama wanted to send a message about a new beginning with the Muslim world, he chose to make his speech in Cairo.

There are those who think the administration's reaction to the street demonstrations is muddled, flimsy and uncertain. No doubt there is still a lot of internal debate.

But there is a response emerging, even if it is characterized by trepidation and wishful thinking. While Mr Obama's spokesman Robert Gibbs has said that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is a close and important partner, he has also said that President Obama has continually pressed for "political discourse".

Over at the US State Department, spokesman PJ Crowley said: "Reform is needed, no question about it". But what was really interesting was the analysis that followed.

"There's a regional dynamic... across the region from the Middle East to North Africa, countries do face similar demographic challenges - young populations, highly educated, very motivated, looking for jobs, looking for opportunities and quite honestly frustrated by, depending on the country, what they see as a lack of opportunity," Mr Crowley added.

So the State Department at least believes a wind of change is blowing through the top of Africa, and they don't want to be on the wrong side of history or indeed the wrong side of new rulers, who might turn out to be good friends if handled correctly. Clearly they are not going to be rude to an old ally, but nor are they going to place all their bets on the reforming instincts of an 83-year-old man, one who has resisted change for three decades.

But that brings us back to one of America's oldest problems. From the founding fathers onwards, there have always been Americans who hope their country's example would inspire others around the world to kick out tyrants and dictators and embrace democracy. And there have long been other Americans who think democracy is fine and dandy if it wasn't for pesky foreign voters going and choosing the wrong sort of people, who may not have the best interests of US policy makers in mind.

It used to be the communists they worried about, now it's the Islamists. The Center for American Security's Robert Kaplan pushes the case for realpolitik, explaining that "in terms of American interests and regional peace, there is plenty of peril in democracy".

"It was not democrats, but Arab autocrats, Anwar Sadat of Egypt and King Hussein of Jordan, who made peace with Israel. An autocrat firmly in charge can make concessions more easily than can a weak, elected leader. Just witness the fragility of Mahmoud Abbas's West Bank government. And it was democracy that brought the extremists of Hamas to power in Gaza," Mr Kaplan said.

After all, in Egypt, the best organised, biggest opposition movement is - despite being banned from open political activity - the Muslim Brotherhood. Some say they would easily win any free election in Egypt and they wouldn't exactly be the cosiest partner for Mr Obama and the US.

The National Review's summary may be close to the administration's view, if expressed in the rather more blunt language.

Mubarak is supposed to be "our SOB", but in distorting Egypt's political landscape to make the choice him or the Islamists, he's just been an SOB. We should want him to exit the scene - but not quite yet.

Obama, on this occasion, may wish not so much for change we can believe in but change he can live with.

Mubarak just said 5:25 PM that the Egyptian government will all be dismissed, except him.
He does not want to leave gracefully, and I feel that there will be repression and a confrontation with
the irate mobs soon. When I was there and Mubarak took over from Sadat, he immediately decreed a state of siege with 6PM curfew. If you were found in the streets, under martial law, you would be shot immediately no questions asked. If you want more details of what happened then, send me a bottle of 25 year old Single Malt scotch whisky.

I'm having a fine tinto from La Rioja, Bodegas Muga Rioja Gran Reserva Prado Enea 2001 while I celebrate my birthday My wife is making me una Paella de Mariscos and there are still a few bottles left for later Anyway, maNana we party, too. Mubarak se jodio. he looks like a ghost and should step down. But I suspect the US wants to play this close to the chest and will not allow him to, assuming he wants out, before they have their men in position. Options A, B and C.



Esa Careta nadie la quiere

Happy Birthday Atabey, I wish you stick around until your furthest expiration date
I love Rioja's as well, enjoy
Interesting what is happening in North Africa, and I smell freedom and the dreaded word, revolution.
I agree Mubarak must go and will go, it is up to the Egyptian people to hit the streets and make it happen
Just like the 1965 uprising in DR, the army has to take sides with "el pueblo" and clean things up
Salud

I did connect after a few tries, thanks Major! I stand in attention and salute you!

US and South Korea also.
S.

The match that lit this revolution was caused by police brutality in Alexandria, that came down with utmost
fury, against a group of peaceful protesters.
Same thing happened in Tunisia, when the fruit vendor Bouazizi was detained by police and his fruit cart confiscated, when he objected, he was brutally beaten to a pulp, and the police mocked him and refused to return the fruits that enabled him to feed his family. In desperation he burned himself in protest,
and this suicidal act fueled the revolution that did away with the 23 year rule of Ben Ali, and incited protesters in Egypt, and elsewhere.
Many revolutions that have done away with the establishment have started by unarmed and enrage street demonstrations, that have gotten out of crowd control, same exact thing happened in DR during the first few days of the revolution, when the people rose against the brutal police in support of the army officers that rebelled against the de facto government headed by Donald Reid Cabral.
Reminds us again that the real power lies with the people, and we have the power to initiate major changes.