TEMÍSTOCLES MONTÁS. Ministro de Economía de República Dominicana

“República Dominicana tiene que reformular su modelo económico”

El ministro de Economía dominicano inaugura mañana la primera edición de los Encuentros El Caribe-El País, en la que se analizará la inversión en República Dominicana

JOSÉ MANUEL CALVO / Iban Campo Santo Domingo 10 NOV 2011 - 00:20 CET
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Temístocles Montás, ministro de Economía de República Dominicana. / MEPYD


República Dominicana debe reformular su modelo económico y abordar una reforma tributaria que garantice apoyos importantes para el sector productivo nacional y la mejora del gasto público, manteniendo la estabilidad macroeconómica y la apertura a los mercados, afirma Temístocles Montás, ministro dominicano de Economía, Planificación y Desarrollo, en entrevista con EL PAÍS y El Caribe.

Montás inaugura mañana la primera edición de los Encuentros El Caribe-El País, en la que se analizará la inversión en República Dominicana. El foro, que reúne a algo más de 300 empresarios, autoridades y representantes diplomáticos y de organismos internacionales, ha sido organizado por ambos diarios con la intención de aportar a la sociedad dominicana reflexiones y propuestas para progresar como país hacia una modernidad ligada a un mundo global y con el que se trabaja de forma interconectada.

Pregunta. Por tercer año consecutivo se pueden superar los 2.000 millones de dólares de inversión extranjera en República Dominicana. ¿Cómo describe ese renglón?

Respuesta. A partir de los años noventa, República Dominicana pasa a ser el principal receptor de inversión del Caribe y de Centroamérica. Recibimos el 30% de la que entra al Caribe y casi un 50% de la que llega a Centroamérica y eso tiene que ver con el hecho de que en los últimos 20 años se han producido reformas institucionales muy importantes. La primera fue la aprobación de la Ley de Inversión Extranjera, entre el [año] 95 y el 96. Salvo en algunos casos concretos, le da igual tratamiento que a la nacional, sin discriminación. A ello hay que añadir que la economía dominicana se ha vuelto muy abierta en términos comerciales y de flujos financieros. Es uno de los países de América Latina que menos restricciones pone a las transacciones transfronterizas de capitales. Es un factor que ha permitido el financiamiento económico en los últimos años, con capitales que vienen confiados en la estabilidad económica y política del país.

[COLOR=#ED1C24] El gran reto es transformar el crecimiento en desarrollo económico y social"[/COLOR]





P. En este contexto de economía dinámica, ¿se encuentra entre los autosatisfechos o entre los exigentes? ¿Hay que seguir dando pasos en la apertura y atracción?

Haití se ha convertido en nuestro segundo socio comercial en los últimos años"

R. Sí. Al analizar la economía en los últimos cinco años, se ha producido una caída del ahorro doméstico interno. La dinámica ha estado muy asociada a la entrada de capitales de fuera, lo cual puede estar bien, pero también mal frente a los choques externos. A partir de ahí llegamos a la conclusión de que el país está obligado a una reformulación de su modelo económico, y hablamos de la necesidad de que los sectores transables [productores de bienes exportables] de la economía —manufactura, agricultura...—, pasen a ser los motores. Los que la han movido en los últimos años han sido las telecomunicaciones y las transacciones financieras, junto al comercio. La economía dominicana necesita de divisas y estos sectores no son muy productores de ellas. Esto no es sustentable y hay que reformular el modelo para que los sectores transables la movilicen.

P. El sector productivo, el transable, se queja de situaciones que no le permiten ser competitivo.

[B]R. El Gobierno tiene que tratar de garantizar la estabilidad macroeconómica porque vamos a seguir siendo un país abierto, pero eso solamente se sustenta sobre la base de la credibilidad, que la da la estabilidad de la economía. Esto hará que el país pueda lograr en el futuro inmediato grado de inversión, es decir, que las clasificadoras de riesgo coloquen a República Dominicana en niveles de Chile, México, Brasil o Perú, para que los sectores público y privado puedan acceder a financiamiento de más bajo costo a nivel internacional. También vamos a tener que abocarnos a una nueva reforma tributaria, que tendrá que tener muy en cuenta el apoyo a los sectores productivos y que no debilite la capacidad del Estado de actuar en la sociedad, sin aniquilar a otros sectores. Otra medida sería hacer un gran esfuerzo por lograr aumentar el ahorro doméstico interno.[/B]

P. Una de las trabas que mencionan los empresarios para ser competitivos es la del costo y calidad de la electricidad.

[B]R. Es un tema permanente. Y uno de los grandes esfuerzos que habrá que hacer, de cara al próximo Gobierno, es garantizar el acceso a electricidad más barata. Aunque los organismos internacionales están tratando de poner barreras a lo que les voy a decir, el próximo Gobierno debe promover la instalación de plantas de carbón mineral.
[/B]
P. ¿La reforma tributaria también debe tener en cuenta la calidad del gasto público?

R. Es un grave problema el que tenemos con la baja calidad de ese gasto. No podemos ignorarlo. Además, de cara a poder justificar una nueva reforma tributaria, debe ser sobre la base de mejorar dicha calidad.

P[B]. ¿Ese capítulo tiene que ver con llevar el crecimiento a la población? ¿Repartir riqueza?

R. En República Dominicana hay un serio problema. Posiblemente seamos de los países de la región con menor capacidad tributaria. Eso no permite mayor capacidad de gasto. La presión ronda el 13% y el gasto público representa apenas un 16% del PIB. No es posible pensar en construir una sociedad como las de España o Europa con ese nivel de gasto. Hay muchas demandas sociales y todo cae sobre el Estado, y todo el mundo quiere que el Gobierno gaste, pero nadie quiere sentarse a discutir a fondo de dónde sacar los recursos para el desarrollo. El gran reto es transformar el crecimiento en desarrollo económico y social.[/B]

P. ¿Cuánto le preocupa la crisis global?

R. Mucho. Tenemos la experiencia de la crisis de 2009, que produjo una caída importante de las exportaciones e importaciones de bienes y servicios. Se redujo el turismo y el flujo de remesas. Lo que ocurra fuera, tanto en Europa como en EE UU, nos va a impactar. Es uno de los inconvenientes de las economías abiertas.

P. Lejos de cerrarse, quizá lo que habrá que hacer es abrirse más en este tiempo de crisis.

R. Sí, más apertura. Y esto nos ha enseñado que el país tiene que diversificarse. Debemos mirar con atención a Asia y un poco también al mercado sudamericano. República Dominicana ha reducido su comercio con EE UU, en menor medida con la UE, y le decía al presidente el otro día que, paradójicamente, algo que nos ha ayudado mucho en los últimos años es que Haití se ha convertido en nuestro segundo socio comercial. Hay que apostar por la diversificación del país.

Here's the rough translation from Google.

Dominican Republic should rethink its economic model and to address tax reform to ensure significant support for the national productive sector and the improvement of public spending, maintaining macroeconomic stability and openness to markets, Montas said Themistocles, Dominican Minister of Economy, Planning and Development, in an interview with the country and the Caribbean.

Montas opens tomorrow the first edition of the Encounters The Caribbean-The Country, which will analyze the investment in the Dominican Republic. The forum, which brings together more than 300 businessmen, diplomats and officials and representatives of international organizations, was organized by two newspapers with the intention of contributing to the Dominican ideas and proposals to progress as a modern country into a world linked global and you are working in an interconnected manner.

Question. For the third year FI may exceed 2,000 billion of foreign investment in the Dominican Republic. How would you describe that line?

Answer. Since the nineties, the Dominican Republic becomes the main recipient of investment in the Caribbean and Central America. We received 30% of which goes to the Caribbean and nearly 50% of which comes to Central America and that has to do with the fact that in the last 20 years there have been very important institutional reforms. The first was the approval of the Foreign Investment Law, of [years] 95 and 96. Except in some specific cases, is indifferent to the national treatment without discrimination. To this we must add that the Dominican economy has become very open in terms of trade and financial flows. It is one of the countries of Latin America that puts fewer restrictions on cross-border capital transactions. This factor has allowed the economic financing in recent years, with capital are confident in the economic and political stability in the country.

The big challenge is to transform the growth in economic and social development "





P. In this context of dynamic economy, is among the self-satisfied or between demanding? Should we continue taking steps in opening and attraction?

Haiti has become our second largest trading partner in recent years "

R. Yes analyzing the economy in the last five years, there has been a fall in domestic savings. The dynamics has been closely associated with capital inflows from abroad, which can be good, but also poorly against external shocks. From this we conclude that the country is bound to a restatement of his economic model, and we talked about the needs of the Export sectors [producers of exportable goods] of the economy-manufacturing, agriculture ...-, to become the engines. Those who have moved in recent years has been the telecommunications and financial transactions, along with trade. The Dominican economy needs foreign exchange and these sectors are not producing them. This is not sustainable and we must reformulate the model for the mobilization of the Export sectors.

P. The productive sector, the producers of exportable goods complain of uncompetitive practices.

R. The Government must try to ensure macroeconomic stability because we are going to remain an open country, but that is based only on the basis of credibility, which gives it the stability of the economy. This will enable the country to achieve in the immediate future investment grade, meaning that the rating agencies placed the Dominican Republic in levels of Chile, Mexico, Brazil or Peru, for public and private sector to access funding lowest cost worldwide. We are also going to have to devote ourselves to a new tax reform, which must take into account support for productive sectors and not weaken the state's ability to function in society, without annihilating other sectors. Another measure would make a great effort to increase domestic household savings.

P. One of the obstacles mentioned by the entrepreneurs to be competitive is the cost and quality of electricity.

R. It is a standing item. And one of the great efforts you have to do, facing the next government is to ensure access to cheaper electricity. Although international organizations are trying to put up barriers to what I'm going to say, the next government should promote the installation of coal plants.

P. Does the tax reform should also take into account the quality of public spending?

R. It is a serious problem we have with the poor quality of that spending. We can not ignore. Furthermore, in order to be able to justify a new tax reform should be based on improving water quality.

P. Does this chapter has to do with bringing the population growth? Allotting wealth?

R. In the Dominican Republic there is a serious problem. Perhaps we are from the countries of the region with the lowest tax capacity. That does not allow more spending power. The pressure is around 13% and government spending represents only 16% of GDP. You can not think of building a society like that of Spain or Europe for that level of spending. There are many social demands and everything falls on the State, and everyone wants the government to spend, but nobody wants to sit down and hash out where to get resources for development. The big challenge is to transform the growth into economic expansion and social development for the nation or people.

P. How concerned are you about the global crisis?

R. A lot. We have the experience of the 2009 crisis, which produced a fall in exports and imports of goods and services. Reduced tourism and remittance flows. What happens outside, both in Europe and the U.S., will impact us. One of the drawbacks of open economies.

P. Far from closing, perhaps you have to do is open up more in this time of crisis.

R. Yes, more openness. And this has taught us that the country has to diversify. We must look carefully to Asia and some South American market also. Dominican Republic has reduced its trade with the U.S., to a lesser extent with the EU, and I told the President the other day that, paradoxically, something that has helped us greatly in recent years is that Haiti has become our second largest trading partner . We must concentrate on the diversification of the country.

An interesting study that sheds light into China's and India's economic decision making has salient features for DR. Mohamed A. El-Erian and Michael Spence in http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2008/0414_economic_growth/0414_growth_strategies_spence.pdf

Why Growth Challenges Can Be Easily Misunderstood

There are several critical factors that surface repeatedly in discussions with leaders and policy makers in developing countries: how to formulate, sequence,and implement growth policies in the presence of uncertainties; the limitations of the mature market economy model and theories when applied directly to growth strategies and dynamics in developing economies; the coexistence of uncertain macro predictions with more predictable micro outcomes; and the building of enabling conditions, most importantly institutional and governance aspects.

At their roots, growth strategies involve, especially in the initial phases, formulating responsive and sustainable policy approaches in the context of significant headwinds. The latter include uncertainties pertaining to economic and social reaction functions, underdeveloped national consensus, weak institutions (both market and government), and fluid (and not always benign)
international influences.

There are a number of issues that have undermined growth strategies and
related reform efforts in developing countries:5

• Inconsistencies between the elegance/simplicity of growth models6
developed for advanced market economies and the reality of their
application in developing country contexts, stemming particularly from
implicit and inaccurate assumptions about the behavior of the economy
and its responses to policies.

• Lack of knowledge of the necessary and sufficient conditions for growth
and development, with emphasis on the sufficiency part. Put differently,
the state of our knowledge is such that there is as yet no known set of
conditions and policy actions that necessarily produce a very high
probability of accelerated and sustained growth.

• Lack of coherence in the design of policies so that they don’t add up to a
plausible overall growth strategy, but rather work at cross purposes.

• The inherent complexities of market formation and deepening, including
the weakness of supportive institutions in the economic, political, and
regulatory space and the varying time horizons required to change them.

• Complex learning processes associated with the maturing of an
economy, its institutions, and its market and regulatory systems. These
learning processes that run in parallel with the evolution of the economy
(as conventionally measured by income levels and tangible assets
accumulated) in the aggregate create a substantial portion of the
intangible assets of an economy. The processes are not well modeled and
measured, and as a result the policy levers that affect the pace of learning
are not well understood.

• The derivation and maintenance of national consensus, especially in the
context of segmented and incomplete social contracts.

• The impact and uncontrollable nature of the external environment, and
the need to adopt strategies that provide a degree of insurance or
insulation from external shocks.

While social scientists continue to make progress on creating models of the
dynamics of economies and political economies and of institutional development
broadly speaking, those in charge of economic strategy and policy making
continue to face the difficult challenge of deciding on implementable policies
with incomplete theories and models of the process, as well as partial and mixed
data that are often subject to considerable lags. It is a form of classic decision
making under uncertainty, not unlike the policy challenges associated with
global warming.7 The science, or in our case the social science, progresses, but
lags behind the need to act.

Indeed, China and India offer a number of practical lessons that are worth
considering and discussing, the most important of which pertain to the basic
decision to avoid an approach based on a static and constant model and opt
instead for a dynamic and iterative approach. The lessons that emerge from these
two important cases with respect to the kinds of approaches and strategies seem
to us to include the following.

First, economic growth models and macroeconomic models generally
derived from the experience of industrial countries will differ in the accuracy of
the predictions about the impact of policies in developing countries. The
accuracy will vary with the state of maturity of the economy.

A corollary is that external policy advice (that often comes from the use of the mature market
macroeconomic models and is often delivered with greater confidence than the
state of our knowledge would justify) may not be well matched to the state of the
economy and need not be accepted without qualification.

Second, there is a potential trap of reacting to genuine uncertainty with
inaction and paralysis, a kind of strategy of “waiting for better information and
more certainty.” The correct response to uncertainty is not paralysis. It is better
to show willingness to embark on a partially designed approach with explicit
recognition of the need for experimentation and periodic reassessments, and
with a willingness (indeed an expectation) to implement midcourse corrections
as appropriate. Mistakes (viewed ex post) will inevitably be made (because of the
presence of great uncertainty). Good policy involves acknowledging and
learning from mistakes, rather than adopting an overly timid approach that
simply tries to avoid them.

It is important to support this experimental approach with (i) a targeted
institutional focus designed to increase policy and implementation effectiveness,
and (ii) a degree of central coordination of policies in order to ensure that policies
and reforms add up to a coherent growth strategy.

While there is a limited applicability of top-down growth models in the
early stages of growth, microeconomic insights remain valid and crucial,
including the role of market-based signals and incentives in motivating
individuals and allocating resources. Market-based price signals,
decentralization, and incentives have proved critical in all successful cases of
growth and development.

Finally, early and continuing attention to the importance of the social
compact(s), including distributional ones, appears to be a critically important
feature of successful and sustainable growth strategies

Go for it Dready

i will not waste my time addressing some of this. all mumbo jumbo, hypothetical, theoretical verbage. show me practical examples, and we can discuss the issues. i dedicated too much of my time in college reading all kinds of theoretical stuff. give me something i can analyse , against the backdrop of reality. apply some of this narrative to a few countries, and see what comes out.

whatever.

Growth Strategies and Dynamics: Insights from Country Experiences

The title should sway your attention Dready.

AIRD: Falta promover exportaciones


Circe Almánzar

Ircania Vásquez
Santo Domingo

La vicepresidenta de la Asociación de Industrias de República Dominicana (AIRD), Circe Almánzar, dijo que el país no ha podido aprovechar el potencial del mercado de Nueva York, igual como sucede con otros mercados, por la falta de voluntad política para promover las exportaciones.

La dirigente empresarial dijo que los problemas de competitividad que enfrenta el sector productivo nacional impide a las pequeñas y medianas empresas acceder a las plazas internacionales y aseguró que solo las empresas grandes han podido hacerlo utilizando recursos propios.

Almánzar precisó que para aprovechar los acuerdos delibre comercio es necesario tener un plan y una visión de estrategia nacional de exportación.

Dijo que si bien se debe mejorar la calidad de los productos, también debe haber un acompañamiento de las autoridades en cuanto a la logística de exportación.

“Eso es lo que han hecho muchos países que han logrado aumentar sus exportaciones”, aseguró.

La dirigente señaló que en repetidas ocasiones la AIRD ha propuesto crear un fondo de fomento a las exportaciones para apoyar a las pequeñas y medianas empresas.

Asimismo, llamó a que se formalice la mesa de exportación que se creó en la Cumbre por la Unidad Nacional, hace aproximadamente tres años, y que aún no se ha puesto en funcionamiento.

“Se trata de una mesa presidencial que no se ha reunido ni la primera vez, lo que demuestra que no hay voluntad política para resolver los problemas de competitividad y promover las exportaciones”, refirió Al mánza"

Circe Almanzar

Vasquez Ircania
Santo Domingo

Vice President of the Association of Industries of the Dominican Republic (AIRD), Circe Almanzar, said the country has failed to exploit the potential of the New York market, just like other markets, lack of political will to promote exports .

The business leader said the problems of competitiveness facing the national productive sector prevents small and medium enterprises to access international markets and ensure that only large companies have done so using their own resources.

Almanzar said that to make free trade agreements work DR needs to have a plan and a vision of national export strategy.

She said that while it should enhance the quality of products, there must be an accompaniment to the authorities regarding the export logistics.

"That's what they have done in many other countries that have succeeded in increasing their exports," he said.

The leader repeatedly said AIRD has proposed creating a fund for export promotion to support small and medium enterprises.

It also called for formalizing the export table that was created at the Summit of National Unity, about three years and has not yet been put into operation.

"This is a presidential board has not met or the first time, demonstrating that there is no political will to solve the problems of competitiveness and promote exports", said Al Almanza.