Get ready Assad, Obama is coming for you.


Arab League Votes for Syria Sanctions

Unprecedented move by Arab nations further isolates Assad regime.

By Ben Johnson | Posted Sunday, Nov. 27, 2011, at 11:13 AM ET

Photo by MAHMUD HAMS/AFP/Getty Images

UPDATE: In an unprecedented move, the Arab League has voted for strict sanctions against founding member nation Syria. 19 of the league's 22 countries voted for the sanctions, which include cutting off transactions with the Syrian central bank and halting funding for government projects in the country.

The Associated Press reports that President Bashar Assad's regime condemned the move, saying it was a betrayal of Arab solidarity, and that the sanctions targeted regular citizens in an already struggling national economy.

The Arab League's Secretary General Nabil Elaraby said the sanctions could be dropped if Syria agrees to an Arab-brokered peace plan that includes sending observers to the country and removing heavy military presence in some areas.

"We call on Syria to quickly approve the Arab initiative," Secretary Elaraby said, according to AP.

During this year's uprising in Syria, the conflict has moved from security forces committing violence against mostly peaceful protests to a more complicated--and to many, alarming--scenario. As the BBC has been reporting from the ground, defectors from the country's military are joining with others and fighting back against Syrian military forces as the "Free Syrian Army." More and more worry that the country is at the brink of civil war.

A growing number are killed daily in intensifying clashes taking place in the city of Homs and elsewhere. Should the situation in the country deteriorate further, the centrally-located Middle Eastern country could profoundly impact it's neighbors. From AP:

"There have been widespread concerns that the unrest in Syria could spill outside its borders, sending unsettling ripples across the region.

Syria is a geographical and political keystone in the heart of the Middle East, bordering five countries with whom it shares religious and ethnic minorities and, in Israel's case, a fragile truce. Its web of allegiances extends to Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah movement and Iran's Shiite theocracy."

Qatar and Baharain warned citizens to avoid travelling to Syria, and those already there to leave immediately. A similar warning was sent earlier in the week by United Arab Emirates. And Reuters reports that Turkey, once a steadfast ally of its neighboring country but now a harsh critic of President Bashar Assad's regime, has entered a level of high alert.

"I observe a simmering threat in the region based on a Sunni-Shiite divide," Turkish President Abdullah Gul said on Wednesday, according to Reuters. "It ... has the potential to move the Muslim world from the 21st century into the darkness of the Middle Ages."

Original Post Friday Nov. 25, 12:36 p.m.: Syria and the Arab League seem even further along a collision course, after the country failed to deliver on a deadline the league set for allowing a peaceful observer mission into Syria to monitor unrest there.

The BBC reports that the league requested 500 observers be allowed into Syria to monitor unrest — part of a larger plan to repair relations between Syria’s leadership and the Arab League, which voted to suspend the country’s membership earlier this month. The deadline for that allowance was Friday, but President Bashar al-Assad’s administration had said it would only allow 40 observers into the country — a number negotiators said was unacceptable.

The latest statement from the Syrian military, meanwhile, pledged to “cut every evil hand that targets Syrian blood,” according to the Associated Press.

On Saturday, the Arab League will discuss leveling sweeping economic sanctions against Syria--a major reversal in an alliance of which Syria was a founding member. Signs of worsening violence in the country have further isolated President Assad, brought more international criticism against his regime, and raised fears of an approaching civil war.

Activists said 11 more people were killed in clashes between protesters and security forces on Friday. The Syrian military also said that six elite pilots and four other officers were killed Thursday in the city of Homs, which has been the epicenter of the country’s unrest in recent months. Since Syria has banned foreign journalists, it was difficult to verify the military’s claims.

The United Nations says nearly 3,500 people have already died in the country since the military crackdown on the revolt began earlier this year.

More from AP:

“Also Friday, a U.N. human rights panel expressed alarm at reports it received of security forces in Syria torturing children. The Geneva-based Committee against Torture says it has received "numerous, consistent and substantiated reports" of widespread abuse in the country.

Former ally Turkey - now a leading critic of Assad's regime - said allowing the observers would be a 'test of goodwill' for Syria.

‘Today is a historic decision day for Syria,’ Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told a joint news conference with Italy's new Foreign Minister Giulio Terzi Friday in Istanbul. ‘It must open its doors to observers.’”

Analysis: Syrian civil war drags in Mideast, global powers

ReutersBy Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent | Reuters – 56 mins ago

http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-syrian-civil-war-drags-mideast-global-powers-175635551.html

LONDON (Reuters) - As Syria's uprising escalates into outright civil war and begins to drag in other states, it risks fuelling not only wider regional confrontation but also growing antagonism between the world's great powers.

After months of largely peaceful demonstrations in the face of a bloody government crackdown, Syrian opposition fighters look to be behind an ever rising number of attacks on forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.

That in itself could mark the beginning of a long, bloody, open-ended civil war. And speculation about foreign military intervention could even spark a Cold War-style face-off between Russia and the United States.

Analysts and foreign governments have long said they believed Iran was providing military and logistics support to Damascus, and some now suspect the opposition too is now receiving foreign weapons.

That, many analysts fear, risks further fuelling the growing regional confrontation between Tehran and its local enemies, particularly the Gulf states and emerging heavyweight Turkey.

"The problem with conflict in Syria is that it is much harder to contain than what we saw in Libya," said Anthony Skinner, Middle East analyst for UK-based consultancy Maplecroft.

"It has much wider regional implications that have largely been ignored. It feeds into what is already happening in the Gulf, as well as elsewhere."

For now, the international action against Assad remains sanctions and diplomatic pressure. Syria's weekend suspension from the Arab League appears to have change little on the ground, and that raises the prospect of a more direct approach.

This week, Russian media reported that Moscow would be sending its flagship aircraft carrier to Syria. Officials talked down any link to recent events, but most analysts said it looked like a clear signal to Western powers in particular to back off.

Having watched as the United Nations Security Council resolution on Libya led to regime change, other emerging powers such as China also seem keen to draw a line in the sand.

Few expect a Libya-style military operation in the much more complex and militarily powerful Syria, but France has talked of creating some kind of "humanitarian corridor" perhaps protected by "armed observers." Turkey, which would likely have to be the primary provider of any foreign forces, has said it does not rule any scenario out.

SUPERPOWER CONFRONTATION?

Washington is believed reluctant to get involved. But the presence of one of its own aircraft carriers within striking distance of Syria has provoked speculation.

"The Russians are signaling that on Syria, it is not a situation where they will publicly protest but quietly and privately acquiesce," says Nikolas Gvsodev, professor of national security studies at the US Naval War College.

"The danger is that it is not clear what they are prepared to do to stop open intervention."

Outright military confrontation between the superpowers remained extremely unlikely, he said, but a worsening of relations would have real costs. Moscow has begun to talk increasingly tough on a planned U.S. missile shield in Europe, saying it would reengineer its nuclear ballistic missiles to pass through it if necessary.

"I think the Russians really were spooked by what happened in Libya and are determined to see that nothing like that happens again," said Nigel Inkster, a former deputy chief of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) and now director of transnational threats and political risk at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"In that they are joined by China and most of... the BRICs... (However) since there is clearly no appetite for a military intervention in Syria, the Russian navy's journey looks likely to be wasted."

A NEW MIDEAST BATTLEGROUND?

For many analysts, the real worry arising from Syria is the risk it could further supercharge existing tensions over Iran. Some believe Syria is already becoming the latest battleground in a largely hidden war raging across the region.

Whilst the Israeli media in particular continues to speculate on the prospects of a military strike on Tehran's nuclear program, most analysts believe such action remains unlikely.

Neither Israel nor the West has the military capability to destroy the nuclear program outright, many analysts say, whilst the potential for a devastating retaliation against oil targets in the Gulf could have devastating results for both sides.

Instead, many analysts believe what the region is seeing is a surge in covert action by both sides. That, they suspect, could explain both a string of recent "accidental" explosions at a number of Iranian nuclear facilities as well as a flurry of rocket strikes on Israel through perceived Tehran proxy groups.

The ratcheting up of sanctions and the storming of Britain's embassy there on Thursday by an angry mob all fit in to the wider picture, they say. So, too, does Syria, providing a potential incentive for Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar to take a much more activist strategy to help any rebels.

"What you're seeing in the Middle East with the withdrawal of the U.S. from Iraq is Iran moving into an increasingly stronger position," said Reva Bhalla, director of analysis at U.S. private intelligence company Stratfor.

"If Assad survives in Syria, he will also be increasingly isolated and dependent on the Iranians, which will reinforce existing regional fears of Iran's growing influence."

Further stoking events, many believe, is a much wider tussle for power as the realization dawns that some two centuries of regional dominance by outside powers - first colonial Britain and France, then the U.S. - may be drawing to a close.

"We shouldn't be surprised that the Russians - in addition to the Turks and Iranians - feel like they've got an opportunity to expand their political-military influence in the eastern Mediterranean," said Thomas Barnett, U.S.-based chief strategist at consultancy Wikistrat.

"Nature abhors vacuums and so do rising great powers."

(Reporting By Peter Apps; editing by Andrew Roche)



The West to use Offshore balancing in the Middle East

0 November 2011 Last updated at 12:44 ET

Why Turkey is cautious over Syria

Jonathan Head By Jonathan Head BBC News, Istanbul



Turkey is now one of the harshest critics of President Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria.

This is in striking contrast to the warm personal relations established between Mr Assad and Turkey's leaders up until this year.

The Turkish prime minister has publicly called on Mr Assad to resign, warning that he was turning into a leader "who feeds on his people's blood".

Turkish actions, though, have been more cautious.

It has been two months since Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to impose sanctions on Syria, but only now have they been announced.

They include a travel ban and the freezing of assets of those close to President Assad, severing relations with Syrian banks, and enforcing an arms embargo. In that, they mirror those imposed by the Arab League last week.

There are no broader trade sanctions - trade between the two countries rose to $2.4bn (£1.5bn, 1.78bn euro) last year - nor any measures that could harm ordinary people, like cutting electricity exports or restricting the flow of water from rivers originating in Turkey.

'Protected corridors'

None of this is surprising. The Turkish government has often expressed its scepticism about the effectiveness of sanctions, and Turkish businesses have lobbied hard against any measures that might hurt them. Trade with Syria is in any case drying up quickly.

The Syrian economy is at a standstill, and Turkish entrepreneurs fear that transporting goods into or through Syria is no longer safe. They are also concerned they may not get paid.

There has been a lot of talk about a possible "buffer zone" inside Syria, protected by Turkish troops. Turkish officials say it has been discussed, but would only be considered if the flow of Syrian refugees became an unmanageable flood, and if Turkey had international backing for such action, in the form of a UN resolution.

There has also been talk of "protected corridors" running from the Turkish border to troubled areas of Syria, like Idlib and Homs. But again, Turkish officials insist this is a hypothetical scenario, and no-one has explained how such corridors would be protected.

Co-ordinated response

What is clear is how closely Turkey is now co-ordinating its response to the crisis in Syria with other countries.

Turkeys Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan gestures while addressing members of Parliament from his ruling AK Party during a meeting at the parliament in Ankara, on November 15, 2011 The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan felt personally betrayed by President Assad

When the Arab uprisings started in January, Turkey often appeared to be acting alone, calling for President Mubarak to step down in Egypt before any other leaders; arguing strongly against any intervention in Libya; but then, in an about-turn, deciding to join the multinational operation supporting the Libya opposition movement.

On Syria, Turkish officials say, they found themselves in the forefront of President Assad's critics after August, when months of Turkish effort to persuade the Syrian leader to embrace reform collapsed in acrimony.

Mr Erdogan felt personally betrayed by what he saw as broken promises by Mr Assad, and outraged by the continued killing of protesters.

But, say those officials, Turkey is more comfortable letting the Arab League, of which Syria is a proud founder member, take the lead in putting pressure on Mr Assad. Turkey is consulting Arab League members very closely about tackling Syria, but is being careful not to move ahead of it.

French co-operation

There has been surprisingly good co-operation too with France.

Turkish-French relations had been very poor until this the middle of this year, due to President Nicolas Sarkozy's very public opposition to Turkey's EU aspirations, his comments about the slaughter of the Armenian population in 1915, and his hostility to Turkey's efforts to mediate in Libya. A visit by Mr Sarkozy to Turkey earlier this year - his first as president - was widely judged a diplomatic disaster.

But a more recent trip by Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has helped to smooth over their differences, and established common ground in their approach to Syria.

Both France and Turkey are leading sponsors of the main Syrian opposition group, the Syrian National Council, and both are working with SNC members to help prepare them for a transition.

Turkey also gives sanctuary to military defectors who have formed themselves into the Free Syrian Army, although it insists it does not allow FSA attacks to be launched from Turkish territory.
US ally

The United States too is fully supporting Turkey's role in Syria. It suits the Obama administration's back-seat approach to the Arab uprisings, to let a strong ally like Turkey do much of the leg-work in building the regional alliances needed to manage the Syrian crisis.

It must also be a source of some satisfaction in Washington to see the strains in Turkey's relations with Iran over Syria - Turkey's attempts to engage Iran over its nuclear programme last year independently of the US caused some alarm there.

For Turkey, the most pressing concern is the impact it will feel from whatever now happens in Syria.

They share their longest frontiers with each other, and a civil war in Syria could have unpleasant consequences for Turkey, from waves of refugees, to increased attacks by Kurdish insurgents based over the border.

Turkish officials say they have given up hope that President Assad can be part of a solution, but they are pressing the various opposition groups to take care not to allow the violence to escalate into a sectarian conflict.