For the love of god, just a week or so ago there was another article on this. I am speechless now, because is not use to keep on talking about this anymore. It seems hard, really hard to understand that there is nothing on the other side, but struggle and desperation. We who are in other countries need to create a coalition to inform our Dominican brothers that risking their lives is not worth it to come here for nothing. God, it really gives me a lot of anger not to be able to-do something to stop this situation. We Dominicans abroad need to start orienting our people and letting them know the truth. That everywhere one goes, is the same struggle for survival. http://nicolasdelvalle.wordpress.com/

ndelvalle, you are so right! But I honestly think the people that do this are at that point of no return emotionally, mentally and physically. And as you said; it's sad that this just happened a week ago or so, and these people were not faced by it. And both you and me know, they watch and read the news.... And that's why I said, that these people are at their wit's end. God help us all!

http://nicolasdelvalle.wordpress.com/ Thanks for the site! It looks great! Will spend some time there reading....

Watch the news? With out electric- the Ladro-nelly has not taught them how to read. Better to have a Metro

It's not for certain, but maybe if our Naval officers had an interest in the well being of the pueblo, they might have been on the lookout for these illegal travelers, rather than looking for their illegal profits from their smuggling activities.

this is a sad reflection on the desperation which people are feeling. they are aware of the fate of their predecessors, yet are willing to take their lives in their hands, throwing caution to the winds, in order to look for HOPE. the government should be ashamed to preside over an environment in which this eventuates. the question becomes; if these people can put together 50,000 to ride these maritime suicide chambers, why not invest it in something small, right here? sell shoes, handbags, pica pollo, something. they will not all become millionaires, but it sure beats being lunch for sharks. when i read these releases, it enrages me when i see these pictures of monstrous 50 story towers which are either planned, or are being built. then we read the commentary from posters like arkatype, who opine that " Dominicans are living large". try telling that to a guy who just sold his little piece of the family plot to buy a trip on a yola!

You know it surprises me that the navy hasen't the brains to deal with this.
I remember sailing in the area and there was no way you could move without a dispacho from the navy office. they even came after me and wanted to fine me because I didn't get one.

So in the name of God get these ***** in the Dominican Navy booted out before more deaths occur.

JimHarrington, the navy has the brains to deal with it, if they wanted to. but there are two considerations 1) the government wants these people to leave; they constitute a burden which is lifted by their departure; go be a problem to somebody else. it is no different than the Mexican government, which publishes and distributes manuals for slipping into the USA illegally. 2) payoffs trump brains, anyday. so says the Navy!!

I'll be the devil's advocate here and say that it is unlikely that the sole reason people decide to take a "Yola" to Pto Rico is because of desperation. I am sorry but I do not believe that things are so bad in the DR that people have no other chioce but to risk their lives for a shot at "Los Paises".

I was there (in the DR) just two weeks ago and granted, things are not exactly peachy; but if you want a job (specially in the Eastern Region) you can have one. What's more, half the people at the resort we stayed in punta cana (Occidetal Flamingo) were Dominican living in the DR. I found this unexpected and took it up myselft to talk to as many Dominicans I came across while staying at the resort. I found people from all walks of life. Just them and thier families enjoying a weekend at the beach. If things are so bad, then who are these people. . Everytime we go there, we see more and more Dominicans stay at the Resorts. If I am wrong, then I stand corrected.

Jacirez,

You make a great point, I was in DR last May, and although I see many strugling really hard. I saw that there was not need to take this kind of action. I keep repeating this on my comments on the issue. Yes things are expensive, but I talked to lots of people that were doing better than me here in Canada. My cousin works at a hotel and in punta Cana and makes more money than me, I even said maybe is time for me to come back. His experience and education are minmal and still he is making the bucks and does not have as many bills as we do here. That is totaly my point, there is no need, if things get too tough instead of risking your life move to a smaller city until the econmy pickup again, I dont know, bahoruco, sanjuan, pedernales is better to live there than being dead.

i do not mind correcting you, Jacirez. you are describing the few dominicans who can afford to do what you just outlined. how many dominicans did you encounter who did not know, literally, how they were going to eat, and how they were going to feed the family that day. i know you are in the role of devil's advocate, but believe me, they are leaving through desperation. what other reason could they have? you say you met people "from all walks of life" staying at the resort. i am sure you did not meet people like my housekeeper there, or the wathchman for the construction site across from my apartment. if you are not sure that desperation is the root cause, would you care to hazard an alternate suggestion?

What is going on in DR ... ? there is a serious problem that should be addressed , very sad, may their soul rest in peace.

Dreadlocks,

You have a good point too, this is the great thing about this blog, that when so many minds get together a lot of things happen. I walked trough Los minas, and is sad, really sad. I had to get out as fast as I could. I saw people still using, anafes, and many other whom had no clue where the food of the day was coming from. The situation Is sad from all angle, we have people in US and Canada that do not have a clue where the food of the day is, and although not in the same proportion we do not see them taking a yola. ok they have welfare and EI. But whatever is the situation, I think what we all are trying to convey here is that there is not need to risk one's life. And no one can get that wrong.

dreadlocks,
I am not saying that I am right in my assumptions; but I spoke with a lot of people while I was there. Granted, not everyone can afford a US $13,000 car; but I did not see "desperation". The kind of hopelessness I experienced while living in the DR.
Carmen, our housekeeper at the resort told me she makes about US $60/Day in tips alone, plus her salary...and other "gifts" from the guests.
My sister, who manages a small hotel in Punta Cana, was offered RD $300,000.00/year by one of the Barcelo Hotels and turned down because her boss promised her even more (plus land in Higuey to build a house).
David, our waiter at the Hard Rock Cafe in Punta Cana makes about US $150.00/day in tips alone!
Pierre, a motoconchista from Haiti living in La Romana makes enough money to send home to haiti to support his extended family, build a house and buy a second motorcycle.
Do not tell me there are no opportunities in the DR. What we have a people looking for the easy way out.

The most intelligent and clever manage and get around.

I feel sorry to say so, but those trips and their results are the product of mere stupidity.

Jacirez, you are describing an ecosystem based on tourism. sure, if you operate in Punta Cana and the resort areas, you get tipped in foreign currency. a guy gives you a two dollar tip, then life is good. however, these are not the guys on the yola!! David, from the Hard Rock, is not saving his money to buy the next available seat. what about some guy from the hinterland, where there are no hotels, factories, or other opportunities? did you talk to people like that? yes, we have people looking for the easy way out. but sometimes, the easy way is just an opportunity, nothing more. people have this proclivity to assert that Dominicans are lazy, and always looking for a handout. you want to cause a stampede? go in the city square of any town and announce that you have a job which allows for 150.00 american dollars per day in tips. then you will see if Dominicans are really lazy!!

WalterPolo,
I desagree. My sister was one of these people. Now she is a law abidding U.S Citizen. If one manages to make it to the continental U.S and works hard, then trisking one's life to cross the mona straight is worth it. I just rather go the legal route if I can.
I personally think I took the easy way out to come to Canada. I am also sure that if I had applied myself I could have been just as successful there as I am here. Here it was just sooooooo much easier.
Today (in 2008) I think there are many more opportunities in the DR that would make it unecessary to take a Yola---however, the idea of going to "Los Paises" is so hard-grained in our minds that we fail to see opportinities right under our noses. Myself included

dreadlocks,
I do not think WE (Because soy Dominicano como Duarte) are lazy. The minute we land on foreign shores we work our asses off to make something of ourselves. What I do know is that most of the ones left behind do not share that sense of mision.
An exception to the rule is someone like my brother who lives in La Vega (that is as far from tourists as you can get) and yet he is in no hurry to take a Yola. He owns a small tailoring shop (Sastreria), has three kids and a wife to feed; yet he is working his ass off to make something fo himself.
I refused to throw my arms up in the air and say: "We are Doomed. There is nothing else we can do...To the Yolas!!!"

Jacirez, what are these opportunities to which you so blithely refer? you mean working in a call center, 9 hours per day, sometimes 6 days per week, for 8000 pesos per month? or how about the wonderful 6000 pesos per month at the zona franca garment factories? i forgot; you could be a school teacher, or a fireman, or a cop, or a soldier. now that is some big bucks there; maybe 6000 per month; pesos, that is. and , ah ,yes, you hold the job for 2 months and 3 weeks, then you are "cancellado", because after 3 months liquidation kicks in. maybe it is because there are all these "opportunities" that all manner of girls with university certificates are looking for a job washing glasses in a bar. Jacirez, i have no idea which Dominican Republic you are referring to. your assessment is woefully at odds with mine. do you believe that all the girls in boca chica, and sosua, and the east end hotel district are there because of the local opportunities?

A lot of us are at fault because we go to dr and tell all this lie about things in america and all the money we make. when in reality there is nothing left here for us but hard work to get that dollar.
we go to dominican we a year of saving for a vacation of two weeks and spend money like there is no tomorrow. so what happen, is that people there think that there is plenty of money here, those time are over

dreadlocks,

Try this for size: My Dad (and some of this friends. None of which has any formal education) decided that working at the Zona Franca was not the way to go. They decided to purchase a Burro and built a "carreta". They prowl the city of La Romana collecting cardboard, plasic and glass bottles, scrap metal and anything of value. They started doing this back in the late 1990s and granted, they are not rich; but they are not starving either.
You tell me, if people without ANY education can find opportunities, how it it possbile that things are so desperate in the DR that the ONLY choice is to take a Yola to Pto Rico?

brootto, you are one of the most intelligent, realistic voices in this forum. you seem to see things exactly as they are. if more Dominicans who come home for vacation would just tell the truth about life in america, most of these yola trips would stop. most of these guys are working 16 hours per day to make a few pesos. they live 10 to a 2 bedroom apartment, in a building where junkies and drunks use the elevator for a toilet. they cannot come home alone after 11pm, because of muggers in the hallways. each apartment front door has 8 locks, and each special key costs 15 dollars. the cops pull over the cab drivers as a joke, and throw their keys into the trunk of the car for giggles. the weather kills you, and makes your bones hurt. yet, returning Dominicans want to come home and show that they are living large. they flash $5 bills to shoeshine boys, like they are Donald Trump. they spend a week or two here , and toss money around like it was going out of style. then they go back to

New York to fight the eviction notice they just got from the city marshall, for non payment of rent. i see it every day. so, unfortunates here believe that if they could just get on a yola, in time they could be paying the limpiabota 5 dollars ,too.

that is my point dread, we need stop hiping things up and tell the dominican people that america is not the 80's or 90's there was money in america. now there is nothing but hard work. When I travel to dr I go simple and tell them the truth no mone in america any more. heck i am thinking about using my profession and skills and apply in dr, get a job there it would not be any different the way the economy is heating.

dreadlocks, brootto,

But that just proves my point: The reason most people take a Yola is not out of genuine desperation; but rather to "Get dat money quick". Whether because of our (Dominican Expats') false sense of prosperity or not, genuine desperation is not the reason. There are hard times in the DR (as most third world countries); but to call that desperation is an stretch, in my humble opinion...

brootto,
I am doing just that: Trying to drum up business in the DR. I would gradly take a pay cut if I can get a contract at one of the many hotels...

actually, you do have a point, Jacirez, in that some people will never leave, no matter how hard times get. but, believe me, there are people who face hardships here that neither you nor i could imagine.

I make a pretty good salary and yet i stroggling to pay my bills. We the right resources and a good head we can make it in dr. those are my plant two more years in america and dr here i come. I am building my base people.

there are a lot of enterprenuorship in dr, we just have to be ready when opportunity comes knoking. At least that is what I am waiting for.

dreadlocks,

I have experienced hardships in the DR. I know what is like to know that on Monday there is not more food in the house; but the next paycheque is due in two weeks. I have gone hungry for up FIVE days while growing up. I know what is like to have all your possession lost to the Compra-Venta...to be reduced to a scavenger at the market garbage dumps in search of food...and I am telling you, in my travels to the DR over the past year or so, I have not seen anymore of this...

tell me jacirez have your seen your past situation happening in US, yes i think so

brootto,

Oh, yes!!! and to a lesser entend here in Canada (specially in the Widnsor, Ontario corridor)
But we are talking about the DR, and the fact that although things are bad, they are not bad enough as to leave taking a Yola to Pto Rick as the ONLY option...

Well, look at it this way. Hotels I speculate employ 60% of the population in touristy cities, the rest are government jobs and you could say that 10% are really struggling for their lives. On the other hand, my cousin who lives in the city is a part time teacher (public) and he lives some what bad, he is a part time clown too, funny combination you might say, but hey: is survival. Now, prosperity rains in every house? No, but touristic cities are very well off. And whether is drug or tourism, people have money in those cities.

That is what I am saying Jacirez, that if it is happening in north america, why not tell them the truth is nothing in north america anymore. Now here you better come well educate and with a good english background if you want to make in america otherwise you are going to struggle the same way or even worse if you have no one here.

the point is america is never going to be the same as it was in the 80's and 90's reality time is here.

So brootto,
Can we at least agree that although the economic situation in the DR is bad (or even Bleak) it is not desperate. That even in time such as this there are opportunities to be found, if we only take the time to look for it...?

You are correct, with patience an ant crossed the sahara desert, the time will come.

The reality is that the streets are NOT paved with gold. However, when you live where there are no streets, anything looks better. (The reason that your neighbors grass looks greener is from where you are standing is that you are seeing it from a distance, whereas you are looking down at your own grass, and from this overview you can see the dirt. Same thing with the view of the US from here.. Looks like the Garden of Eden, till you get there.
Jacirez: With regard to the people that you met at a resort; Do you really think that people that can afford a represent the common man. That's like believing that someone being driven in a limo represents the working masses.

dominicans should know already that things is not the same, just look at the remesa money is not coming in like the 80's and 90's it should be a least a hint. There is no more jodedores that kept the economic rolling. those day are over.

juanb,

I clearly stated: "...Granted, not everyone can afford a US $13,000 car; but I did not see "desperation". The kind of hopelessness I experienced while living in the DR..."
I am not saying things are perfect; rather, things are not desperate (as desperate as I remember them back in the 1970s, 80s & 90s)...

I think it has less to do with being Dominican and more with being human. To be honest, if Cuba had jobs that paid $200,000 a year I might consider jumping on a boat and heading down. But if I currently earned $100,000 then I might not feel as though the risk was worth it.

I was just watching the segment of a show on Telemicro talking about the income inequality in DR. Apparently the very expensive concerts Luis Miguel and Juanes gave were jam packed and the tickets weren't exactly cheap - a stark contradiction to people having to throw themselves on yola. I think the country seriously needs a coup d'etat by someone who cares for the poor.
I also visited the country a few months ago and did not see any depressing type of poverty, but I think the reason is that it is just being masked by a lot of the mega-construction projects.
There are a lot of people in the diaspora that sell false hopes when visiting, but honestly some of the better homes (not megamansions, but what we would consider decent middle-class type homes), 99.9% belong to people who have family in the states, so can we really blame the yoleros?

My esposas brother was probably on the yola from what we know. We are all praying for his safe return. Her family and her brother are from Villa Riva which is near San Francisco. I have been living in the Dominican Republic in a place call Maimon for 14 months. This is a very small town and very far from my native Texas.
I have been to Villa Riva many times and stayed with her brother and his family. They are great people and I pray for the best. They live in a wood shack and cook on wood fires. The meals and the kinship are the best I can remember. These are the best family/friends/loved ones you can imagine even though they have nothing.
Please don't be fooled by the resorts and the other Dominicans you meet there. There is poverty in this country and many people are desperate for a better life. Not for themselves, but for their families. Remember that these persons risked their life not for themselves, but so their children could have a better life than they have.

Gringo1, very familiar with Maimon. lots of good , inexpensive seafood there. the poverty and lack of real opportunity in villages of the area bewilders the most jaded of people. maybe Jacirez should consider staying in some poor village on his or her next visit, to see some real poverty,.

Most comments miss 2 points. 1.If Dominicans will risk the voyage, there must be a belief in good reasons
2. How can the US navy , never mind the DR Navy miss so many yolas? Especially in what has been good crossing weather recently. Not only large craft, but helicopters with the best radar in the world.

Many friends have crossed legally recently, and most comment on being either stopped or buzzed by choppers

they will probably find this boat around Saona ....I have a strange premonition...and I can feel it in my bunions.....it also came to me in a dream.....and I read it in the tea leaves of my cup

dreadlocks,
Like I said yesterday. I KNOW there is poverty in the DR. My sister was one of the Yoleros in the early 1990. I could count at least 50 people from my 'hood that took the trip and at least 10 that lost thier lives. That said, I find it hard to believe that things are bad enough now (in 2008) that the only choice is to take a Yola. I stand by that statement. There are jobs in the DR, if you are willing to be hardworking and creative you will find as much, if not more, opportunities in the DR as you would find in the U.S, Canada or the EU...

JACIREZ, i have no statistical evidence to support your contention that there are more opportunities today than when your sister boarded a yola. first, i have no idea of how many job openings have come about relative to the increase in population. i also have no way of telling how much more of the people are educated and prepared for the job market now, than then. i have no idea of how easy it is to obtain bridge loans and venture capital today, than it was in the early 1990s. without such data, i cannot make any assessment. i am a guy who does not like to make statements without the benefit of facts, so i decline comment.

Dread,
Try this:
Economy of the Dominican Republic
Currency 1 Dominican Peso (RD$) = 100 Centavos
Fiscal year Calendar year
Trade organisations WTO
Statistics [1]
GDP ranking 68th by volume (at PPP) (2005);
GDP $89.87 billion (2007 est.)
GDP growth 10.7% (2006 est.)
GDP per capita $9,208 (2007 est.)
GDP by sector agriculture (11.5%), industry (28.3% ), services (60.2%) (2007 est.)
Inflation 8.2% (2006 est.)
Pop below poverty line 25% (2006)
Labour force 3.896 million (2006 est.)
Labour force by occupation services and government 58.7%, industry 24.3%, agriculture 17% (2006 est.)

...And this:

Unemployment 15.5% (2007 est.)
Main industries tourism, sugar processing, ferro nickel and gold mining, textiles, cement, tobacco
Trading Partners [2]
Exports $6.881 billion f.o.b. (2007 est.)
Main partners U.S. 72.8%, U.K. 3.2%, Belgium 2.4% (2006)
Imports $12.89 billion f.o.b. (2007 est.)
Main Partners U.S. 46.9%,Venezuela 8.4%, Colombia 6.3%, Mexico 5.7%, (2006)
Public Finances [3]
Public debt 45.6% of GDP (2006)
External debt $8.634 billion (2006)
Revenues $5.658 billion (2006)
Expenses $6.119 billion, (2006)
Economic aid $571.6 million (FY04 est.)[1][2]

thanks for taking the time to send me the numbers, Jacirez, but none of that elucidates anything without corresponding figures for the early 1990s; we are making comparisons, remember? numbers like GDP have no impact directly upon employment, or opportunity.

dreadlocks,

Here is a simple way of looking at the above figures:
--Main industries tourism, sugar processing, ferro nickel and gold mining, textiles, cement, tobacco
All of these industries are labour intensive. That said,
---GDP by sector agriculture (11.5%), industry (28.3% ), ****services (60.2%)**** (2007 est.)
That means over $54B is produced by the service industry...
---Labour force 3.896 million (2006 est.)
2.35 Million employed by the service/tourism industry alone

do not confuse dread with data and statistics he is more of a theory guy

yes, Jacirez, but what were the corresponding figures in 1990? and , what was the population then? and what was the relative level of readiness for the job market? and what assistance was provided for fledgling and upstart companies? without data from both years , you cannot make a comparison.

dreadlocks,
I can make the following asumption: In 1990 the populaton of the DR was about 8 million, the GDP about US $8B. In 2007 the population is abou 9million and the GDP is US $90. Now, knowing that services accounts for (60.2%) of the GDP it is a safe asumption that an increase in GDP is derectly proportional to an increase in employment. Remember that GDP distribution across sectors has remained flat over the last ten years...

Jcirez, there is absolutely zero correlation between GDP and an increase in employment; none whatsoever. GDP is simply the amount of money spent in an economy in a given accounting period. GDP can increase while employment decreases, depending on many factors, not the least of which is mechanisation, robotics, and leaner business models. technology intensive strategies reduce the need for human labor. in the USA, for example , there are many more gas stations today than there were in 1980. but there are far less gas station attendants today. it is the structure of business that counts, and the business model. WalMart is the largest retailer in the world, selling more products than anyone else. but , because of the business model, it hires fewer inventory clerks than companies that are much smaller, because of the "just in time' inventory model.

Dread,
Let me try this again, slowly:
GDP (Gross Domestic Product is the amount of economic activity {products and services} produced by a country). With me so far? Good. Services Produced by the DR in 2007 acounts for 60% of all this economic activity. Remember, services are provided by people in the DR (i.e restaurants, hotels, etc. Not banking services as in the U.S, Canada, etc.), so there is no automation (that is, not large number of large value automated transactions). In this case, an increase in services means an increases in "people" providing said services (more maids, waiters, etc.) so in this case, there is a direct correlation between an increase in GDP and employment...

let us try this again, slowly, Jacirez. anything that is not a tangible good is a service. (intangible good). service receipts can rise without a corresponding increase in employment. have you ever stopped to consider the legal fees which are included in the GDP relative to the real estate boom? you think that most of these fees are going to a whole new group of attorneys, or that the established players are not simply making more? what about wage increases? it is a little more complicated than that. do you realise that 2% of the GDP increase last year was affributed to cellphone operation? you believe that millions of people are in the cellphone business?

you would think so by the number of damn cell phone shops

this is true. but look at the numbers of people with cellphones( usually without minutes)

dreadlocks,

At some point, people who insist the earth is flat have to be left to believe as they choose...Life is so damn short :-))

gouletcolonial,
For your information, I am sitting at home. I woke up this morning and decided to take the day off. I can do this because I own my own business...Granted, I work 80hrs a week; but it's all good...

jacirez, are you contending that i am a member of the flat earth society, or are you referring to the yoleros? just asking.

dreadlocks,

I meant that sometimes you have to let people believe what they want to believe and move on...

he is still freezing his cojones off in his father in laws house in the frozen tundra of Canada aka Siberia

gouletcolonial,
Wrong again. My father in law in on the other side of the country and this house is MINE...

jacirez, i am not merely "believing what i want to believe". i hate to have to mention this, but, in the light of your concession, i have to let you know that i spent many a year studying economics. you approach the issue from a linear, arithmetic standpoint; like saying that if today is represented by two, tomorrow must be two plus one. it is not like that. there are all kinds of regression analyses and econometric models that have to be designed to arrive at the answers. data can be interpolated, but too much guesswork pollutes the answers. so, i am not just "believing what i want to believe". if it cannot be analysed, i would rather discard it.

dreadlocks,

I majored in Finance (BcComm) for my first degree and Computer Sciences (Minor Economics) for my second...
I stand by my asumption. The economy of the DR subscribes to a rather simple model. Describing a relationship between GDP and employment in such environment is not theoretical physics...

you are completely at liberty to stand by your assumption. sadly, neither Finance nor Computer Science are economics. it is like me saying that i am qualified to make doctrinaire postulates on human cancer treatment, because i have been to veterinary school. if we have to go there, i hardly think that a minor in economics trumps a MA in economics.

dreadlocks,
On the contrary. My entire academic background in rooted in applied mathematics. Economics, Finances (Derivatives/futures contracts), computer security (encryption) are all rooted on applied math...in that regard, I stand by my background...

show him how big it is .........show him

while you are at it, would you mind enlightening me as to what you mean by "subscribes to a rather simple model? you mean that it is linear? and why is it simple, vis a vis other economies? the only difference between the DR economy and one such as the American economy is the variety of goods and services available. there is no such thing as econometric models for big countries, and models for small countries. the resuls are occasioned simply by inserting the relevant variables.

applied mathematics is great as a tool for solving problems, such as the time value of money, and other issues regarding matters of calculus. it does not give you a theoretical understanding of economics, which is more art than science, at times.

dreadlocks,

Are you kidding me? Are you comparing the Economy of the U.S with that of the Dominican Republic?
For one, the U.S economy is a consumer economy, one on which 72% of the population participate. This is one of the reason the U.S is in the best position to manage the current crisis. The DR, on the other hand depends almost enterely on outside actors to keep its engine going....
and that is just off the top of my head...

dreadlocks,
"...applied mathematics is great as a tool for solving problems[...] it does not give you a theoretical understanding of economics, which is more art than science, at times..."
Not quite. It allows you an intimate understanding of systems, patterns and their relationships...which is the most fundamental description of an economy...

really? the DR depends on outside actors to keep it going? and the USA is in "the best position to manage the current crisis"? the current US crisis will be managed by one thing, and one thing only; deficit spending. OUTSIDE ACTORS. the only way the economy will come back in the short to medium run is by government fiscal policy, similar in ways to the Keynesian model during the great depression. and, where is the money going to come from? partly from taxation, but most of it from sovereign wealth funds and other creditors. outside actors.

you really believe that the players on wall street operate on intimate understanding of systems and relationships, rooted in things like applied mathematics? it is understanding of human response, and trending. i do not see Warren Buffet, and guys like those, resorting to partial derivatives when they are making investment decisions. these guys are artists, not scientists. they factor the human element into their decisions, more than any mathematical model.

dreadlocks,

Remember the current crisis is not limited to the U.S alone and while sovereign wealth funds and other creditors will play a role in financing the U.S economic Recovery (whenever that happens) the U.S. economy will be in a great position to benefit from the inevitable economic upswing that is sure to follow is recession...

The point that I was trying to make is that the U.S economy, because of its unique characteristics is better suited to survive a worse-case scenario than the D.R. Hell Argentina was once the 9th largest economy in the world and it collapsed back in 2003

dreadlocks,
Most investment houses have entire department dedicated to exactly that: ANALYSIS. Do not believe the hype that billions of dollars are traded on a whim. Commodities futures and derivatives contract are structured based on hard mathematic formulas. I know this first hand (my internship at the Montreal Exchange back in the mid 1990s) . Granted, certain actors (because of their positions) can influence the markets in dramatic way; but this is more the exception than the rule...

Argentina collapsed in 2001, not 2003, partly because it had a current account deficit which was 150% of GDP. it simply borrowed too much, which is why it had that period of quasi prosperity. it called in the IMF when it was evident that default was impending, and, any student of the IMF knows that its recommendations and objectives are not intended to revive the economy, but to stabilise the currency, so the debt can be repaid. it is the policies of the IMF that threw Argentina in a tailspin, and caused capital flight. then, argentina told the IMF to take a hike, and defaulted on the loans, using the money to shore up the local economy.

dreadlocks,

GDP growth in Argentina occurred in 2002-2003...

i am fully aware that the trades have mathematical formulae; the real players are the guys and girls who make trades that always seem to come out on the plus side of the ledger, because of their instinctive understanding of the economic ecosystem

dreadlocks,
That undestanding you speak off is not present in the trading floor; but the executive suites. I do not know of any billion dollar contract sold that way...

Jacirez, you first state that argentina collapsed in 2003; then i said it was 2001; then you tell me that GDP increased 2002-2003; i am confused.

dreadlocks,
Macroeconomically speaking, the critical period started with the decrease of real GDP in 1999 and ended in 2003 with the return to GDP growth,

actually, the decrease in real gdp growth was present in 2003 also. nominal GDP grew, but you must remember that the argentine peso was no longer pegged to the us dollar, and allowed to float. that led to massive inflation and a lack of confidence in the currency. so GDP, adjuste for inflation, or real GDP, was actually negative

dreadlocks,

Quite so. I stand corrected...

still bickering

actually, we are not bickering; we are having a spirited conversation, in a civil fashion. bickering is something i leave to people like arkatype and his ilk. jacirez is someone i can learn from.

how civilized

you know me, GC; Mr Civilised. you, on the other hand, are urbane, with all your hoity toity wines and cheeses, with names i cannot pronounce.

Remember what I told you about drinking wine dread

i forgot, which is my right at my age. kindly refresh me, if you will.

never let the brown paper bag touch your lips !

GC, i only drink wine from a box, anyway

tough carrying one of those around in your pocket

who said anything about carry? i consume it at the cash register.

I don't know about you, but I prefer the new Barolos and Barbarescos...

i don't know about you, but i do not know what the heck those are.

dreadlocks,

Barolos and Barbarescos (B&B )are made from a single varietal called the Nebbiolo grape. Nebbiolo takes its name, in Piedmontese dialect, from the word "Nebbia" which means fog. This refers to the fog that crosses over the Apennine mountains every fall and settles in Piedmont just as the grapes are ripening and almost always in time for harvest.

Both wines are made in geographic areas specified under Italian law. Both wines must be 100% Nebbiolo and within each geographic zone is a village bearing the name of the wine in question.

jacirez you would be arrested in Fungulistan {Italy} for drinking those wines young that is called infanticide ...although the famous Barbarescos of Angelo Gaja are pretty palatable when young But young Barolo however is sacrilege had a 46 Borgogno Barolo once it was memorable but like Brunellos these wines are meant to be aged....That is what the current scandal in Tuscany is all about ....if it is real Brunello di Montalcino how are you able to drink it so young ...some very prominent people have been caught cheating Tsk Tsk

gouletcolonial,
Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha...

But Seriously,
Regarding the aging requirement only, for a wine to be labeled as Barolo, it must be aged for at least 3 years, two of which must be in wood. To qualify as a Riserva, the aging must increase to 5 years. For a wine to be labeled as Barbaresco, the aging is reduced to 2 years, 1 of which must be in wood. To qualify as a Riserva, the wine must age for 4 years. Additionally, minimum alcohol contents are increased by at least .5 percentage points in Riserva wines.

Perhaps the single most important aspect that sets the wines apart is the terroir and the vineyards that produce the grapes and wine. Barolo has been called "The King of Wines and The Wine of Kings". It is often thought of as such with it's massive tannins, high acidity and high alcohol content. Yet ripe Barolo is wonderfully fragrant and deep and massive in the mouth...

I have met Angelo Gaja and Jacopo Biondi Santi on various occasions had the priveledge of tasting thirty different vintages of Biondi Santi Brunello at Il Greppo in Montalcino...a momentous occasion

gouletcolonial,

Angelo Gaja "may" have put Barbaresco on the fine-wine map , but to call him the the reigning prince of Piedmon is a bit of a stretch in my opinion.

well, GC, i have met Rufus and Skeeter on various occasions on the Bowery, and had the privilege of tasting thirty different vintages of Rippel and Thunderbird. so, blow it out your ear!

I have been hammered or over refreshed in more Bodegas and Vinas and Caves and Cellars with the owners of said properties drinking their best on many many occasions ...just lucky I guess ...That wine exists is proof that God loves us

does anybody elses Barbarresco sell for as much as Sori Tilden ?.....that answers the question ...but my true love is Fino Sherry ....I lived four years in Jerez and the memories bring a smile to my face....Only the Bordelais can be as snobby

rufus and skeeter have fine palates and are excellent company to imbibe with although their choices are usually aged in the delivery truck

gouletcolonial,

You are a better man than me. I have never been a fan of the Vino de Jerez....

yes, but the wines have a good nose, and the finish is exquisite.

gouletcolonial,
"...rufus and skeeter have fine palates and are excellent company to imbibe with although their choices are usually aged in the delivery truck..."

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha...You're killing me. LMAO

i will recuse myself from this seminar on the appreciation of the grape. i usually cannot tell the difference between Valdeplata and Mouton Cadet, perhaps because i have never had the latter.

dreadlocks,

Tell me dear Sir, Presidente or Budweiser...?

I recomend Chateau Pissoir and Chateau Bidette for you dread

Brahma Light in the DR or whatever is On Sale.....I know that business as well was the labbatts distributor for the USVI for a couple of years ...Got me seats in luxury box with one days notice at the world series the first year Toronto won...that was when they were in the DR trying to sell Labbatts ICE with the Bermudez people

man, do you ever know how to schmooze; and you call me a brown noser! and Jacirez, a Schlitz Malt Liqour Bull, or Colt 45, would suffice, thank you.

dreadlocks,

(This is me in my best Yorkshire accent)

Perfect Choice, Sir...

:-))