Close Gallery
File photo of President Fernandez in a previous trip to Cuba.
Zoom Picture

Santo Domingo.- President Leonel Fernandez’s sudden trip to Havana has sparked speculation that Dominican Republic may become the second nation to receive Cuban political prisoners, after Spain, and may herald a new era of shuttle diplomacy made famous by Henry Kissinger during the Cold War. 

His visit to Cuba comes just 10 days after meeting with president Barack Obama, five days after the arrest of Puerto Ricn Jose Figueroa Agosto and 15 hours after Sobeida Felix’s deportation by U.S. authorities.

Political analysts say Fernandez may be acting at Obama’s behest “to help” in the reception of Cuban detainees, which the West calls political prisoners, but accused of being common criminals in their country.

And though local media refer to Fernandez’s 24 hour visit as official, Cuba state-run newspaper Gramma published only two paragraphs noting the meeting with Raul Castro and the conference he’ll dictate in Havana University.

Since there are more than 100 dissident detainees still and Spain has already met its quota, and the fact that some of those who arrived last week have voiced criticisms against that nation’s authorities, the United States needs to look for another destination for the rest.

Yesterday Washington stated its interest in receiving an unspecified number of prisoners, but asked other countries to collaborate in distributing them among the Americas and Europe.

The analysts stress that Fernandez’s sudden trip to Cuba is to convey Washington’s message and that everything points to the distribution of the Cuban prisoners outside US territory, given the bitter experience of the Mariel boatlift 20 years ago.

Share / Recommend this article: FacebookFacebook Digg thisDigg this del.icio.usdel.icio.us TechnoratiTechnorati YahooYahoo Facebook
COMMENTS
164 comment(s)
Written by: juanb, 22 Jul 2010 2:06 PM
From: Dominican Republic
Why not worry about this?

IMF 30 June review delayed

Clave newspaper makes the point that the review of the fulfillment by the Dominican government of the International Monetary Fund stand by arrangement is on hold. The review was scheduled for 30 June but didn't happen because of the rising fiscal deficit, says the newspaper. Reportedly, the government was authorized a RD$31 billion deficit, but the opposition party PRD sources say the deficit has surpassed RD$76 billion. The other conflict is the electricity subsidy. Reportedly, the government has used up the allotment for the year in its totality. Clave says that the delays in the review means US$80 million less for the Central Bank and subtracts lots of credibility to the government.

Instead of showing us what a world class Photo Op traveler you are?
Written by: JimHarrington This user is banned, 22 Jul 2010 2:13 PM
From: United States
Obama would never allow some banana republic ppresident to be his envoy. The article is full of political rehtoric to support jet junkets and photo ops for Leonel and Margarita del Cerdo.
Written by: Ricardolito, 22 Jul 2010 2:15 PM
From: Dominican Republic, vieja Santo Domingo
There is no story about any problem with the IMF any where else but in Clave ..the latest statement from the IMF about the DR is relating to the meeting of Latin nations with the IMF in Panama.
Written by: CarlosFranco, 22 Jul 2010 2:29 PM
From: United States, Brooklyn

Jim Have not heard the reputation Leo has for solving international conflicts? Your comment demonstrates your ignorance, for not being aware of the current political cloud Leo has and for assuming that because we're a third world country, the US would not need our help. Guess again pal!


Written by: CarlosFranco, 22 Jul 2010 2:31 PM
From: United States, Brooklyn

My only problem is that Leo needs to focus on the country not the international arena
Written by: JimHarrington This user is banned, 22 Jul 2010 2:40 PM
From: United States
Carlos Franco.
Leonel has no reputation for solving any type of international conflict in the international community. The only reputation he has for solving international conflicts is what his propaganda machine puts out.
The real reputation he has is for spending DR money on press ops and private jets as well as borrowing to pay for these junkets.
Written by: gmiller261, 22 Jul 2010 4:11 PM
From: United States

WTF.

Why can't this clown fix his own backyard?

How the hell does this help the health of the Dominican Republic?

The moment Cuba opens up, the 60 million US baby boomers, retirees starting next year, will go there.

Damn, morons.

Written by: etiennc01, 22 Jul 2010 4:43 PM
From: United States
i smell jealousy !!!
Written by: xwill7, 22 Jul 2010 4:59 PM
From: United States, El cuarto bate
DR closes its doors??? Why??? DR is not located that far from Cuba. I do not see Cuba better than DR only new competition... DR has strong USA & Euro clients as well, and they already know and love DR...
Written by: Belly, 22 Jul 2010 5:51 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
JuanB

When Cuba opens, the DR closes.

can you proof such a claim. What I think is the funniest thing about people putting such a claim is that 98% of those claiming this is going to happen have never BEEN in Cuba or know anything but what Fidel and Chavez say. Most people think once Cuba opens to USA every country is going to stop everything they are doing and heading to Cuba. Here is what an investor looks for when investing in 3rd world countries 1st can my investment be protected by the gov. well in this 1st DR has a much better record than Cuba. 2nd. What can such a 3rd country offer that I cannot find around it, such as profits,business friendly policies and many other things. You see JuanB Costa Rica and Panama are a much more real competitors to DR than Cuba would ever be in the next 30 years even if the embargo gets lifted. what guarantees an investor that the 1960s won't happen in 2020.

Remember a "Democracy" requires assembly and Cuba doesn't have a manual yet. DR d
Written by: xwill7, 22 Jul 2010 5:59 PM
From: United States, El cuarto bate
Well said belly... Does anyone have a real number of daily international Dominican flights arriving at all of DR's airport??? Every flight that I have been in going into DR has been full to the max. I do not see Cuba topping DR in air traffic., investors will look at that number.

Its like opening up a store, you want the street with the most traffic...
Written by: etiennc01, 22 Jul 2010 6:26 PM
From: United States
i smell jealousy !
Written by: Belly, 22 Jul 2010 6:30 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Xwill

Cuba opening up would more be a chest pumping moment for USA to make the world think the embargo did work than anything. Moving forward this would be an option that USA can play against smaller countries when behaving differently than what USA wants. The hype over Cuba would be over quick once people realize that a open or close society that is poor has the problems and just a different way of looking at it. Open society have a better chance in the current world environment than closed one for the simple fact that no country on earth has all the answers and knowledge needs to share around.
Written by: devin11, 22 Jul 2010 6:55 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
What a liberated Cuba has going for it amongst many other resources are a highly educated populace which will instantly attract high skilled business investments. Very strong political ties with the US since Cuban expatriates have served the US government in high leadership positions (state governors and senators) will ensure necessary access to the powers that be. There are also many powerful business leaders in the Cuban expat community that will use their wealth and influence to steer investment dollars into a free and democratic state. The sheer land mass that Cuba has versus other regional Island states also compares favorably for them. Cuba was once the predominant regional power before the revolution, once a free elected democratic state is back in place and the infrastructure gets up and running, this currently economic blank canvas will regain it's position in the Caribbean order. There are billions and billions of dollars counting on it.
Written by: Ricardolito, 22 Jul 2010 7:15 PM
From: Dominican Republic, vieja Santo Domingo
devin I think what you wrote is a very good summary of the situation ..but I think the door will not be open for a long time ..simply ajar . And that gives the DR some chance of getting it´s own house in order before Cuba dominates ..but Thailand exists well next to Malaysia and South Korea next to Japan so there does not have to be a winner and a loser here.
Written by: devin11, 22 Jul 2010 7:36 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Ric,

I agree with you that there does not need to be a winner or loser, I just tried to point out some unalienable facts about why Cuba will be very economically viable after the fall of the current regime. The best competitive angle that the DR can take is to make a greater investment in it's own people, via quality educational initiatives. The DR will have great difficulty in a continued competitive global economy with the scant resources that are allocated to educational funding. Small island states cannot hide their mistakes Ric, there will always be extreme vulnerability when your economic fortunes can turn dire with just a 10% downturn in tourism and a couple of bad hurricane seasons wreaking havoc on the agro crops and the already delicate infrastructure. An increased educational class will ensure an increased skilled labor class that will covet greater high-end economic investment and remove the proverbial eggs out of the single tourism/agro basket.
Written by: Atabey, 22 Jul 2010 7:37 PM
From: United States, NYC
Guys

Venezuela severs ties with Colombia

By CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER
Associated Press Writer
AP Photo

Latest News
Venezuela severs ties with Colombia




CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- President Hugo Chavez severed Venezuela's diplomatic relations with Colombia on Thursday over claims he harbors guerrillas, and he charged that his neighbor's leader could attempt to provoke a war.
Written by: wents22, 22 Jul 2010 8:20 PM
From: United States, New York City
I want to see how well Cuba competes againts DR once it opens up to the United States. I Think DR is far more superior than Cuba in many areas, and DR will continue to grow. I'm excited to see the future on these two countries.

I smell World War III between Colombia and Venezuela.
Written by: wisdom, 23 Jul 2010 12:25 AM
From: Dominican Republic
the minuses savages are picking on basta ahora
Written by: juanb, 23 Jul 2010 12:53 AM
From: Dominican Republic
You might be right, and I might be wrong.

I just know that 50 years ago Cuba was THE place to go for Americans. As several others have pointed out it has a very well educated populace. True, they are stifled by the oppressive regime under which they live, but I believe that given the opportunity to live within a free society they will quickly flourish, to our detriment. We are not really equipped to compete, other than the fact that we have a head start.
Written by: Belly, 23 Jul 2010 4:43 AM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
JuanB

50 years ago USA was number 1 in everything and had a budget surplus and fast-forward 2010 there is 14 trillion dollar deficit and 47th in education. As you can see things have changed a bit in the last 50 years. The myth that that Cuba's 11 million well "educated" as you say will change overnight from a total communist government to and free open society within a few years is simply a myth nothing else. People need to stop thinking that 11 million people's mind can be change overnight by the same guy that has wanted to keep it the way it is today. I just think is funny people expect change from the same guy who invented the illness that exist today, If the Castros have not change in so many years what makes anyone think they will now and even worst do it over night. Once again this is all smoke and scream and I hope the embargo gets lifted today and see what people would be saying 10 years after.
Written by: locogringo, 23 Jul 2010 9:07 AM
From: United States
just tell me the name of the books and I can read them for myself.
Don't just copy the pages here.
I smell plagiarism !!!!
Written by: xwill7, 23 Jul 2010 10:03 AM
From: United States, El cuarto bate
Cerveza Presidente is controling all islands en el caribe
Written by: dreadlocks, 23 Jul 2010 10:09 AM
From: United States
wents, there are areas , also, in which Cuba is far superior. let us start with education. it is easier to correct a lack of capital, in terms of plant and equipment, than to correct a dearth of skilled, educated, responsible, disciplined, hard working people. one is just cash..the other is mindset.
Written by: devin11, 23 Jul 2010 11:47 AM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly,

How long did it take for East Germany to change from a totally communist government to a "free and open society"? How long did it take for the majority of the former Soviet Union Republics? The ideology that sustains the Revolution in Cuba is not love of communism but fear of being imprisoned for speaking out against the policies of the regime. There are countless dissidents in jail right now and countless others who were made examples of for speaking out by being forever silenced. The people there are suffering and will welcome any relief that will not prejudice their safety and that of their own families. The Cuban people will not take to the streets to protest the Billions of dollars that will be coming in for their reconstruction, they will not sabotage the shiploads of Mercedes Benz, Prada, Harley Davidson and other trappings of consumerism that the current regime hierarchy always had access to. Cubans are not any more principled than any other regional group.
Written by: Belly, 23 Jul 2010 12:07 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

If Cuba becomes a "free and open society" this would mean that Cubans would be able to exit the country at their wish just everybody else and we both know what this mean in a country where 90% of the people have been willing to leave for so many years. How many eastern German left for the west and how did it affect the east think about it. Many people think that 100% of Cubans are going to stay in Cuba and wait for the improved standard of living while they can just leave. Many things other than capital comes with having USA being able to come in and out without control. Many things that are not present problems in Cuba will be there in a free and open society and as I have said before "Democracy requires assembly" and DR is far ahead in that perspective. What guarantees the Castro's that they "highly educated" population as you guys say won't just pick up and leave for better grounds, heck they have been doing it even with all the restriction already Imagen without it.
Written by: devin11, 23 Jul 2010 12:32 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly, the US is not looking for a "chest bumping" opportunity to celebrate a victory of the embargo should the current regime in Cuba fall. Everyone knows that the Cuban embargo was a failure in that it has been almost 50 years since inception and it has failed to bring about the goals of it's enactment. The only reason that it still exists today is mainly because of US political party consideration of the pro-embargo lobby vis-a-vis South Florida. The proof of this is that we have trade relations with countless countries who's humanitarian record makes Cuba look like a happy wonderland. You put the US at 47th in education but do not give out the statistic for that placement. Do you mean 47th in educational spending, total graduates at primary, secondary, tertiary levels, total graduates per capita, advance degree graduates, literacy rate, etc.??? The reality is that the US is one of the most educated countries in the world. It seems that you have a rather effete view of the US.
Written by: devin11, 23 Jul 2010 12:59 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly,

Under what premise do you think there will be an open door policy for Cubans to leave en masse from their island? What other regional jurisdiction has a policy to allow their citizenry to just leave the country, if that were the case Latin America would be almost barren. You started off by saying that Cubans are heavily indoctrinated into the mindset of their current system and will not quickly change to accept a new ideology you said it is a "myth" to suggest as much. Now you say that 90% of them would want to leave, which is completely counter to the "myth" example you made earlier. Their will be people that will want to leave and they will but there will also be many people who left under fire in the middle of the night that will also return. Like I said they carry a lot of political clout in the states, loads of cash and access, they also look to aid and promote one another, almost exclusively. They have proven many times their resiliency under extreme adversity.
Written by: Rainman, 23 Jul 2010 1:11 PM
From: United States
Very interesting discussion to put in my two cents I will say that Cuba was a very prosperous societey prior to castro, cubans didnt leave they just visited the US many for lunch and back. Once castro is gone and his system with him Cuba will return to what it was and better within a few years what is has going for it is the following:

For the past 50 yrs cubans in the US and the world have learn the true meaning of democracy and what it takes to create one and maintain it. Just in the US there is plenty of money waiting for the moment to invest in Cuba's infrastructure and economy in general.

Tourism will be vibrant and quick since for the past half century it has not really offer the opportunity at least to the americans to explore they hava all travelled the world but cuba remains a myth.

Cubans may not be up to par with the rest of the world's education yet they have the basis to catch up. Yes Cuba will be great once the rats are gone !!!!
Written by: Belly, 23 Jul 2010 1:11 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

Can you please post the quote where I said that Cubans have been "heavily indoctrinated into the mindset of their current system and will not quickly change to accept a new ideology you said it is a "myth" to suggest as much". You see Devin11 I'm more than willing to debate any topic here but when people start making stuff up and post it as if I said it then the debate looses it essence because it becomes a battle of winning or loosing by making statements up. I did NEVER say Cubans would not adapt to a new system that is simply something you made up yourself so please don't quote me on something I NEVER said here. In every country in this continent every citizen is allow to leave the country with proper documentation and you should know that by now. I'm sure they have abilities to flourish just like Dominicans have abilities to flourish and promote themselves exclusively too just look at the MLB in example.
Written by: devin11, 23 Jul 2010 1:29 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly,

That was my quote that I used to paraphrase what you had written earlier which was "The myth that that Cuba's 11 million well "educated" as you say will change overnight from a total communist government to and free open society within a few years is simply a myth nothing else." "People need to stop thinking that 11 million people's mind can be change overnight by the same guy that has wanted to keep it the way it is today." I am not putting words in your mouth and my quote relayed exactly what you conveyed. After you made these statements you later wrote that 90% of Cubans want to leave, well which is it? Do 90% of Cubans want to leave as you said or do we need to stop thinking that "11 million people's mind can change overnight"...as you said?
Written by: Belly, 23 Jul 2010 1:41 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

Once again if you read and understand the quoted text from me you just posted then you will realize that what you have conclude based on that text simply doesn't make sense. I have clearly said that 11 million peoples mind moving from a communist way of thinking to a free and open society CANNOT be done OVERNIGHT and if you think that statement is not REALITY then you must really believe in myths. Second statement is that 90% of Cubans would leave if they had a chance to do so is another reality statement for the simple fact that there are more Cubans in USA today than there is Dominicans in USA today and even with much more strict rules and harder for them to make it out the door. so let me ask you this 2 questions and answer with yes or no please.

1. - Do you think 11 million people's mind moving from communism to a democracy can be done overnight or short few years?

2nd - Do you think 90% of Cuban would leave if they had a chance?
Written by: devin11, 23 Jul 2010 1:47 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly, of course I know that people can leave their prospective countries via proper documentation, I never suggested the contrary. What I also know is that they will not be allowed to leave en masse to the point that your claim, ("What guarantees the Castro's that they "highly educated" population as you guys say won't just pick up and leave for better grounds?") is moot because the overwhelming majority of this well educated class will have to stay behind to rebuild the country whether they want to or not.

Dominicans do not have the the empowerment to promote themselves exclusively through M.L.B. because they do not have ownership of any team or executive powers through the commission of the M.L.B. In fact the M.L.B. has now made it more difficult for Dominican players through D.N.A. testing, extra stringent document analyzation and more comprehensive drug testing measures.
These measures were imparted for DR M.L.B. prospects only, how is that exclusive promotion?
Written by: devin11, 23 Jul 2010 1:57 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Written by Belly:
"Once again if you read and understand the quoted text from me you just posted then you will realize that what you have conclude based on that text simply doesn't make sense."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Belly, my reading comprehension is fine, no insult taken, I will however not render any comment on your writing ability. You asked me these two questions,

1. - Do you think 11 million people's mind moving from communism to a democracy can be done overnight or short few years?

2nd - Do you think 90% of Cuban would leave if they had a chance?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Do you not see how mutually exclusive these two questions are? If a persons mind cannot readily move from communist to democratic why would they leave to a democracy? If 90% of cubans want to leave why would they continue to embrace communism?
Written by: Blutarsky This user is banned, 23 Jul 2010 2:29 PM
From: Dominican Republic, No Spin Zone
I should have been paying more attention to this very interesting thread .....There is change in the air the Cuban people cry out for it ......This is not a victory for the USA as devin says ....their interests are in a peaceful resolution ot this situation ....America wants strong trading partners in the Spanish Antilles and all of their interests are connected .....With a more democratic Cuba and a strong stable democracy in the DR and who knows Statehood for Boriquen at that point these places will be on the world stage .....Let the next generation in Cuba have something to say about their own future ....Those old revolutionaries on both sides need to get in their rocking chairs and shut up
Written by: Blutarsky This user is banned, 23 Jul 2010 2:38 PM
From: Dominican Republic, No Spin Zone
If they have a civil disturbance as in a riot .....like in Iran for example .....that would be the worst case scenario .....and I dont think the Military and the police could carry out that level of violence and retaliation on their own people .....and at that point the old timers would be looking at Ceausescus fate ....and a difficult readjustment .....How Obama and Castro resolve this will be their mark in history ....if Castro does not make the right moves ....Cuba will not hold him in high esteem in 25 years ....nor will most in Latin America ......Nutty Hugo has put an ugly face on this type of regime
Written by: Belly, 23 Jul 2010 11:50 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

I see you still confuse. Once you answer the question then we can move forward and discuss as it is now the conversation is running laps around you.
Written by: devin11, 24 Jul 2010 1:51 AM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly, that's a pretty arrogant assessment on your part to suggest that the conversation is running laps around me. I have answered your questions in my previous post. This is the second time today that you have chosen to insult my comprehension and accumen. I gather from your last response that you deem yourself a superlative intellect that is above my level of intelligence so I guess there is no need to continue this engagement. Thank you very much for your time and the opportunity to discuss this issue with you, I apologize that I could not keep up with your superior erudition.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 2:06 AM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

superiority have never been something I have suffer from in my time I'm learned to take the back seat more than the usual guy here. The thing that I don't understand is why is it so hard for you to answer my 2 simple yes or no question and deciding to avoid it simply proves my point even more. I'm simply stating my point of view as a person who have actually been to Cuba twice know and know what the locals life is like in Cuba and of course DR since I was born and raised there. The fact that people think a country can change overnight simply show the person lack of understanding how many things can go wrong at any given time in any country. So once again for as long as you refuse to take a stand and answer the question and draw the line on the sand whether your answer is yes or no I stand by mine. You see I don't see discussion like this ones as a winning or loosing situation but as a simple discussion that could lead to better understanding of each of us.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 3:30 AM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

Unlike many people here to me personally anybody who cares about DR is neither a winner or a looser in any discussion but a friend who I share something in common with. There are many people here who I disagree with yet still respect their opinion as I do respect yours as well. My only purpose is to move the conversation beyond the old argument that ends with a winner and a looser and a bunch of cheerleaders choosing sides. I love my country as much as any other patriot but that doesn't mean I would hide facts. I have been to just about every country in Latin American and most of my points of view come from local sources at local levels.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 9:28 AM
From: United States
Belly, any prognosis regarding a mass exodus cubans is one that is predicated entirely upon the immigration dynamics which will be occasioned by the political realities which develop. maybe cubans will have to get in line like every one else to petition for a visa to even visit the usa. they will not be leaving in the droves you forecast. besides, many will want to be a part of the new history. all who believe that the last men left will turn out the lights are sadly mistaken. as to your assertion of a 14 trillion dollar deficit...please elucidate, and cite your sources.
Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 10:24 AM
From: United States, NYC
My two cents. Having witnessed the situation first hand, I have little doubt that if given the chance a sizable portion of Cuba's youth and middle age population would opt out of the decaying nation. However, these people do so in general not because they hate their land of birth, but because they see no reasonable chance that things will change for the better. And so why continue to invest precious lifetime in a sinking ship? And they are right to think so, as would any of us in similar circumstances. As for the transition from a "socialist" to a capitalist system of operation, I think that there will no doubt be a learning curve, and things will not go as smoothly as some might want or hope. I'm reminded of my son's piano teacher from Havana who having lived in NY/NJ for ten years was still having difficulties getting used to our ways of dealing. She explained to me how difficult all these concepts of interest and mortgages and all the rest were to her and her husband.
Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 10:31 AM
From: United States, NYC
Will it take Cubans long to re-connect to the Western way of doing business? Yes and no. Some will adopt very smoothly and others will have a very difficult time coping with the new reality. The whole issue of ownership and legal right to property will have to be resolved before any meaningful economic push takes place on the private side of the equation. And this bit will take some time in being sorted out. Another consideration is that Cuba has a significant number of people that are attached to the system, and would defend it. How many is difficult to know, but it is not insignificant. While I think the better part of the population would welcome significant or radical change in the regimen, I would caution all to keep this in mind. The age structure of Cuba's population also plays a role in all these calculations. Cuba has one of LA's, indeed, the world's oldest population metrics, and her pop. growth rate is very low. Someone told me in Havana, "Why have children?"
Written by: Blutarsky This user is banned, 24 Jul 2010 10:44 AM
From: Dominican Republic, No Spin Zone
Dread you are correcto mundo .....There is a simmering resentment among Dominicans and others about the current Cuban immigration policy ......one foot dry
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 10:56 AM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

I clearly said that 90% of Cuban want to leave and I'm sure you and I know the difference between wanting to leave and being able to do so. Immigration in any country with laws in place have always been easier for people seating at better position like well educated one or people with money access. Once the embargo is over many other country would be more willing to provide visas for Cuban and is not just USA where they could be heading too. Any suggestion that this will be smooth and done overnight is simply smoke and scream propaganda. As Atabey has pointed out many people are attached to this old system and Cuba has one of the oldest population in LA which makes it harder for changes to happen. About the USA deficit is well documented every where how indebted USA is today, which is sad because I will have to pay part of it too.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN088462520100608
Written by: Blutarsky This user is banned, 24 Jul 2010 11:03 AM
From: Dominican Republic, No Spin Zone
When it comes to getting into the US the Dominicans are always getting the soiled end of the stick compared to the Boricuas and the Cubans
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 11:10 AM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Blu

That's an advantage both Cubans and Boricuas have had for a long time but for some reason many here except you have been willing to recognize. Even with that said Dominicans have one of the highest if not the highest ratio of legal to illegal residents in USA coming from LA.
Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 11:36 AM
From: United States, NYC

" [A]ny prognosis regarding a mass exodus cubans is one that is predicated entirely upon the immigration dynamics which will be occasioned by the political realities which develop."

"they will not be leaving in the droves you forecast. besides, many will want to be a part of the new history. all who believe that the last men left will turn out the lights are sadly mistaken."


Contradiction? You say immigration is predicated on the dynamics of the as yet unknown political realities and then you say there will be no mass departures?

I think your first thought is correct. The second is unknown.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 11:44 AM
From: United States
i will not get into an argument about the debt, because of the many different aspects which generate different figures. i will, however, contest ANY assertion that 90% of cubans want to leave cuba. i am willing to bet that the numbers of people who would like to leave are not much greater than the numbers of dominicans who would like to end up in the USA. the repetive reports of yola disasters, and high sea apprehendings, attests to that reality
Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 11:51 AM
From: United States, NYC
Dread,

I have not claimed that 90% of Cubans want to leave the island. Look at my posts. I merely pointed out an inconsistency in your argument. The first part is correcto, the second part is not because it must await the dynamic and fluid situation that may come to Cuba. Understand?
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 12:01 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

I'm sure there are many Dominicans who would like to end up in USA but the conversation was about migration from Cuba after the embargo gets lifted. The simple fact that there are more Cubans than Dominicans in USA proves that there are more Cubans willing to pick up and leave than there are Dominicans even with higher restrictions of both ends for Cuban in their own country and the arriving one. You are speculating that they won't leave and stay until things improve and I have my speculation that many will pack up and leave and maybe return later if improvement happens. I agree to disagree with you. As we have seen lately that Cubans have changed the route of immigration into USA and is now done through Mexico and other countries.

"Castro blames US for Cuban brain drain"
http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Cast...._for_Cuban_brain_dr_07182007.html
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 12:15 PM
From: United States
Belly, i am astonished that you could make the statement that the SIMPLE FACT that there are more Cubans than Dominicans in the US demonstrates the fact that more Cubans are willing to leave. that is beyond simplistic. it is not simply a matter of motivation. several other dynamics have to be factored into the equation, not the least of which is ACCESS. all cubans who landed in Cuba could stay. Dominican illegals were turned away
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 12:29 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

"all cubans who landed in Cuba could stay. Dominican illegals were turned away" hope you meant USA.

The same way Cubans get returned to Cuba. Remember they must hit land in order for them not to be turned away. However you want to put it is much simpler for a Dominican to leave DR than it is for a Cuban to leave Cuba that's a fact. The simple fact that a Dominican can follow a process that is the same for everybody meeting certain criteria unlike the one in Cuba that changes depending on ever changing rules and don't follow any standards. No matter what, it is easier for a Dominican to get out of DR yet more Cubans have made Cuba and that's a fact.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 12:32 PM
From: United States
BELLY, getting OUT OF, and getting INTO, are two different things. it does not matter how many dominicans can get OUT, if they cannot get INTO.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 12:43 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

The same principle applies to Cubans. They can't just walk INTO USA like Canadians can and is much harder for them to GET OUT OF Cuba than it is for a Dominican to GET OUT OF DR. You see Cubans have 2 obstacles to make it into USA. Dominicans only have 1 to get into USA. DR does not restrict Dominican to get out of DR now USA restricts Dominican to GET IN. On the other hand Cuba restricts Cubans from GETTING OUT and USA restricts Cubans from GETTING INTO it. With all that in place as far as restriction more Cubans are now living in USA than Dominicans. Using you own logic if we were to only count Dominicans who came to USA illegally then my point would be even more evident that more Cubans are willing to leave than Dominicans. Many Dominican didn't have to get on a Yola but most Cuban did and do today. If it wasn't for the political asylum Cubans get in USA most Cubans today would have been illegally living in USA. You are smart enough Dread do the math of what would be like.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 12:58 PM
From: United States
Belly, you seem unaware of the initial mass exodus from Cuba in the early sixties, aided and abetted by the US state department. far more cubans iN the USA are there as a result of that movement, than the stragglers who get in on leaky craft. the DR has no such parallel. besides, most of the current wave of cubans who head to the states today have decent financial backing from relatives in miami, and generally have safer passage, than dominicans getting onto impromptu yolas and trying to beat the mona passage. even today, the USA still has a dry foot policy to cuba, but to nobody else.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 1:09 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

Let me do it differently by asking you some questions.

1st - What percentage of Dominicans do you think want to leave DR?

2nd - What percentage of Cubans do you think want to leave Cuba?

3rd - Which country has an easier process for their citizens to migrate to new land? Cuba or DR.

Please provide your answers as short as possible.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 2:24 PM
From: United States
Belly, i do not answer speculative questions. the first two are just that. if you provide the answer, show me how you arrive at it. i would like to see some mathematical models, not anecdotal suppositions. and yes, dominicans can get OUT easier, to any other country. they just cannot get IN to the USA as easily as cubans. that is the critical factor. it does not matter how often you go to the mall. it matters how much you have to spend.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 2:54 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

I have stated my opinion that 90% of Cubans have a desire to leave Cuba based on people I spoke with while I was there. Most of the one I spoke with said the same thing that they believe the won't have a bright future in Cuba based on their actual condition today. Most of the educated one believe that with their education they could live a much better life else where. I have also stated that 90% wanting to leave doesn't mean that 90% will leave but of that 90% the ones most likely to have a opportunity to leave will be the better educated ones for the simple fact that most countries view well educated immigrants as a plus to their local economy. Once Cuba is open and free it means people have the right to move away and is something many countries could take advantage of if those immigrants have something they need. Now I would like to know why you and how you concluded that my statement is wrong.
Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 4:16 PM
From: United States, NYC
Dread,

I'm waiting for your response.
Written by: devin11, 24 Jul 2010 5:03 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Yes Dred, please give your example and don't forget to Also include unproveable anecdotal references as well as a profile model that imparts absolutely no numerative statistical or logistical value. That seems to be the mathematical methodology that passes as valuative information in this forum. This is the same rational that was used earlier to quantify that DR tourism is not suffering at all because when the poster had gone to DR the plane was full. Any deviation from that type of therapeutic jingo balm will only serve to cast you as unable to grasp the subtilties and nuances of the topic. Oh, I almost forgot, your ignorance will be asserted, in the most grammatically challenged way.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 6:57 PM
From: United States
Belly, i unfortunately cannot accept as a statistic, some anecdotal interviews you had with people you met. i have no idea how many people you met. could be 50. could be 100. could be 15. i also have no idea of what demographic these people came.if i speak to 50 people in LOS MINA, and 50 in Arroyo Hondo regarding a desire to emigrate, the results will differ. i do not know that the sample of people you spoke to passes the nose test for statistical acceptability
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 7:26 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

I'm not asking for anybody to accept my opinion as if it was UN type of statistics I just want people here to formulate an opinion about Cuba based on actual knowledge from the local side of it. I won't accept people who have never been to Cuba and have only seem it on Google images to tell me that what I saw with my own eyes is not true. The debate of Cuba is one of those topics that have right leaning people against it and left leaning for it. I like to be in the center and choose to wait and formulate my opinion base on facts and things I can see with my own eyes instead of what the right or left media thinks of Cuba.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 7:32 PM
From: United States
Belly, i have been to Cuba, myself, more than once. i just am a little more circumspect about coming to statistical conclusions by using methodoligies which do not remotely provide adequate results. if i meet 29 guys in a bar in Rio San Juan, and 25 tell me that their favorite rum is Barcelo, that does not mean that the same figure will apply in Puerto Plata. statistical sampling theory is a little more sophisticated than that.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 7:44 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

Once again I have never claimed that my opinion is a source of statistical data and I don't know why you are driving the conversation to that anyways. Once again I said from my first post that in my opinion from in my times there 90% of Cuba have a desire to leave but wanting to leave DOES NOT equal 90% leaving but from that statement you concluded I said there was going to be a mass exodus which I have NEVER said here. You have your opinion from a left leaning perspective and I'm sure Blu has his from a right leaning perspective I simply have chosen not to do it from the left or the right but based on facts and figures.
Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 8:47 PM
From: United States, NYC

"In April of 1980, Fidel Castro declared the Port of Mariel open, permitting Cubans to freely depart for the U.S. In the next six months, an estimated 125,000 Cubans arrived in a massive wave on American shores.

I dare say that today the numbers would approach 500-1,000,000 or more Cubans.

"We are Cubans ... We are living in the revolution — or maybe in the post-revolution — and we are good persons," says Orlando Luis Pardo, a 38-year-old blogger who is part of the academy.

"We don't [intend] to create chaos, social chaos. On the contrary, we [intend] ... that people in Cuba regain somehow their hope in Cuba, because a lot of young people that I know will say, 'When you get some money, find your way out of the country.' "

"Every year that passes," Sanchez says, "means the dreams of having your own home, having a salary with which you can maintain a family — particularly with children — are postponed again and again."

Dread, I'm waiting....
Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 8:50 PM
From: United States, NYC
http://www.npr.org/templates/stor....ry.php?storyId=93206962&ps=rs

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124288271

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128646441

And there are more, if needed.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 8:54 PM
From: United States
i have no idea what you are waiting for, atabey, because the same refrain is sung in numerous other third world countries. i want you to PROVE to me that if the USA initiates a completely open door policy on immigration, dominicans would not head there, in comparable numbers. as i say, i am a guy who likes figures, not anecdotes and interviews with some guy in a colmado. get down to using some acceptable sampling theory before you tell me how many people want to leave. give me how you arrived at the sample population, and give me rubrics, not tales of woe.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 9:04 PM
From: United States
as i said, Atabey, i am not moved not moved by all these links you provide with articles based on interviews held with disgruntled , woebegotten parties in cuba. i have no idea who writes them. for all i know, they could emanate from anti castro forces in miami. get some structure into this. get a mathematical model together, and do a proper statistical sampling. i can give you a million tales of woe from guys right here in the DR.
Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 9:06 PM
From: United States, NYC
" [A]ny prognosis regarding a mass exodus cubans is one that is predicated entirely upon the immigration dynamics which will be occasioned by the political realities which develop."
[Dread]
"they will not be leaving in the droves you forecast. besides, many will want to be a part of the new history. all who believe that the last men left will turn out the lights are sadly mistaken."
[Dread]

Contradiction? You say immigration is predicated on the dynamics of the as yet unknown political realities and then you say there will be no mass departures?

I think your first thought is correct. The second is unknown.
Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 9:06 PM
From: United States, NYC
How about explaining your incongruent post above?
Written by: devin11, 24 Jul 2010 9:09 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly,

I'm sorry but I just couldn't resist, you started your statement by claiming that you don't consider your opinions to be a source of statistical data and then your close your statement by claiming that your opinion is based on facts and figures which you previously claimed should not be considered statistical data. That type of doublespeak is what exasperated me to the point of not continuing this conversation. Now please excuse me I have to go fly an airplane which I don't know how to fly based on the fact that I can fly it.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 9:25 PM
From: United States
there is nothing incongruous about it. Belly uses a figure of 90% wanting to leave, and i stand by my statement that EVEN IF they could ALL leave, nowhere near that figure would head for the tarmac. like you, his numbers are based on nothing mathematically acceptable, and is just speculation and storytelling. my mind does not functiion well in such nebulous environs.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 9:32 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

How many times have you been to Cuba?
Written by: devin11, 24 Jul 2010 9:40 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly,

I have never been to Cuba but I do have a telescope and that does not make me an astronomer. Consider this, how come when a Cuban delegation of any type, whether it be in the arts, sciences or athletics comes to the US or it's territories there is never a 90% desertion? There will most always be a few defections but never anywher near the extent that would qualify your assertion.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 9:43 PM
From: United States
well, Belly, there is a perfect opening for you to buttress your contentions. go ahead...knock him dead..
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 9:44 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

Thank you now I know who I'm talking to. Is funny that those who think like you are actually the ones who have never been to Cuba and only seem it in Google images or picture on the web.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 9:47 PM
From: United States
another masterpiece from Devin. now, Belly, you can make a really easy start by giving us defection statistics..i mean, the guys are already in their target location...
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 9:49 PM
From: United States
Belly, that kind of petulant rejoinder does not become you. defend your position. deal with the facts. condescending remarks will not further the discourse. so, start by giving us defection statistics.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 9:53 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

how come when a Cuban delegation of any type, whether it be in the arts, sciences or athletics comes to the US or it's territories there is never a 90% desertion?

What does your statement proves and how does it relates to the Cuban embargo and what could happen if it gets lifted. How many Cubans would leave Cuba in a exact number would only be known once the border is open for travel but I can assure you that Fidel doesn't open for obvious reason that you don't see to recognize.

Now let me ask you the same question Dread refused to answer.

What percentage of Cuban would pick up and leave if they had the chance to do so?
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 9:57 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

"so, start by giving us defection statistics."

Cuba has the largest population of non US citizen in the Caribbean living in it's territory and most of them are not artist, sportsman. Some how the managed to stack up the largest population without doing it by deserting from a baseball game or art show.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 9:58 PM
From: United States
Why Sample?

When organisations require data they either use data collected by somebody else (secondary data), or collect it themselves (primary data). This is usually done by SAMPLING, that is collecting data from a representative SAMPLE of the population they are interested in.

A POPULATION need not be human. In statistics we define a population as the collection of ALL the items about which we want to know some characteristics. Examples of populations are hospital patients, road accidents, pet owners, unoccupied property or bridges. It is usually far too expensive and too time consuming to collect information from every member of the population, exceptions being the General Election and The Census, so instead we collect it from a sample.

The population we want to know about is called the TARGET POPULATION, as it is the one we are interested in and targeting. Identifying the target population is not always as easy as it might appear.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 9:58 PM
From: United States
Belly, YOU are the guy who asserted that there would be an exodus. i never asserted that cubans would head for the doors. i disputed your remark. besides, i told you i do not argue such issues without statistical samples.. i think you are getting bogged down.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 10:00 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

Can you please post where I asserted a mass exodus that you claim I said. Once again let's stop making stuff and defend our position without resulting to putting words in others mouth. You know well I never said "there is going to be a mass exodus" you made that up. Lets be honest in this discussion.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:00 PM
From: United States
note, Belly, the use of the phrase REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE. cuba has 11 million , plus, people. your talking to 100 or so does not constitute a representative sample.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:04 PM
From: United States
Belly, i will consider your response to my request for defection statistics as a non answer. the question is simple. it is answerable by a figure, or number. nothing else is relevant to that question. no editorialising is needed. just digits.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 10:08 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

Ok so lets see the hard numbers from you about there being no possible scenario about Cubans leaving Cuba. Since you claim most will stay and fight can I also see the numbers and how you concluded into that position. One more can you please provide your statistics about Cubans coming into USA backed by financially stable families in Miami and Dominicans leaving in leaky boats. Can you provide numbers please. I will wait for your statistical response since you seem to talk from figures in your statements.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:10 PM
From: United States
Belly, you assert that 90% of cubans wish to leave. even if 5 percent of that 90 percent gets to leave, if relations are normalised, that figure is , for economy of mathematics, 5 percent of 10 million. i consider that a sizeable amount..half a million is a pretty stout number. at least, to me.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 10:13 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

I clearly said my opinion about the 90% of Cubans wanting to leave Cuba shall NOT be used as UN type of statistics but for some reason you seen to want to change the conversation every time by making statements I never said and putting words in my mouth. Is funny how you try to turn around and change the topics by making things up I HAVE NEVER SAID. Once again we can discus all they long if you want but HONESTY must be play in our post.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:16 PM
From: United States
i would not use your figure, because it has no statistical validity. similarly, i will not offer figures regarding cuban families in the usa who help to squirrel family members out of cuba. it is a known fact that such a community exists. the extent, to me, remains unknown, and, for that reason, i will not give a figure.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 10:18 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

Ok so lets use the 5% you just posted of Cubans leaving. Now let me ask you this simple question.

Which of the following group is most likely to be within that 5% leaving Cuba?

1. Well educated and financially stable Cubans.
2. Well Educated Cubans
3. Poor Cubans with no education.

Please pick one.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:20 PM
From: United States
Belly, i use hypotheticals to make arguments, not to make points. if i cannot give HARD DATA, i cannot make a point. my mind just operates differently, i guess.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:22 PM
From: United States
actually, Belly, you are in a better position to answer that one than i am, since you are the guy who did the survey that concluded with a 90 percent exodus wish list.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 10:24 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

You see I'm asking you to statiscally prove something you ACTUALLY CLAIMED to be true and you turned around and asked me to prove statiscally to prove something I HAVE NEVER claimed. Can you see the differences?
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:26 PM
From: United States
actually , Belly, that question is best answered by interjecting the economic concept known as prospect theory. i have no idea which of these groups will see themselves as having better prospects if cuba becomes an open society
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:28 PM
From: United States
let us try this slowly, Belly. now, i know that some days the sun shines, and some days it is overcast. that is a given. i just do not know how many days it was overcast last year, as i have neither primary , nor secondary, data at my disposal, at this moment
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 10:29 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

actually, Belly, you are in a better position to answer that one than i am, since you are the guy who did the survey that concluded with a 90 percent exodus wish list.

In every open and free third world country is obvious there is always more passengers than seats so criteria are put in place by the host country which usually in the case of USA in example requires some sort of well behaving past with the laws and some sort of financial stability but of course if you are financially stable and well educated the priority by the host country will go to those in those position because they are seem as a plus and a quality citizen. I'm sure you already know that.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:33 PM
From: United States
well behaving, and financially stable. brings to mind the Mariel Boatlift
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 10:35 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

couple of years ago Bill Gates sat in congress asking for a UNLIMITED number of HB1 Visas to be provided to private companies and I can assure you their main purpose of those Visas were not to bring in sick and poor people into USA. They were to bring well educated people from India's top talent into USA. Now they didn't get picked to be provided with free Visas because of the good will of Bill Gates there was a reason for it. Financially stable top talent well educated people was the criteria to meet.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:41 PM
From: United States
with a literacy rate of 99%, you might want to tell us how many uneducated cubans we are talking about.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:47 PM
From: United States
Belly, in the absence of insider knowledge to the contrary, i am inclined to suspect that the criteria for acceptance will be no different than when a guy from the DR, or Jamaica, of Korea, applies for resident status
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 10:52 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

"with a literacy rate of 99%, you might want to tell us how many uneducated cubans we are talking about."

You well know what literacy rate mean right?

Literacy rate : In economics, the literacy rate is the proportion of the population over age fifteen that can read and write.

I would never consider somebody who can read and write a "well educated" and neither does the U.N. in their criteria. It takes more that being able to write "Yo como en mi casa" and being able to read it to be considered WELL EDUCATED. By my personal standards I consider a well educated person somebody with at least BA or MBA on some field.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:55 PM
From: United States
nobody used the term WELL EDUCATED. i am speaking of people who have at least the same level of education as the Dominicans , or Nigerians, or Cambodians, who get visas to the USA
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 10:56 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

In the case of Cuba there has been 805,000 graduates since Fidel came into the picture that are to be considered well educated by world standards which is less than 10% the total population of Cuba's 11 Millions.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 10:59 PM
From: United States
once again with the term WELL EDUCATED. i did not use it. i see no relevance of it in this discussion. i am fully aware of the fact that Flatbush and Washington Heights are not crawling with double MBAs.
Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 11:01 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

That's the term I have been using when referring to "Well Educated Cubans" in all my post. LOL I surprise now you seen not to have notice that. LOL. I hope you were not using 99% literacy rate to refer to the "well educated Cubans"
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 11:05 PM
From: United States
forgive me if i fail to see your point. i have no idea what you are asserting. as i said before, the projections can only be made after subjecting the issue to prospect theory, and a REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE taken. nobody knows what the configuration of salary scales, benefits. opportunities, and well being will be for each division of the population. therefore, we cannot speculate about how they will see their respective prospects
Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 11:25 PM
From: United States, NYC
Dread,

How can you claim that the future depends on certain unknowns, and then go and say the opposite, that there will not be an exodus? I fail to see how you can honestly play both. And I'm not referring to 90%. I've had an opportunity to discuss the subject in the island and found many willing to test their luck if ever given a chance, but I would not claim such an inflated figure. Certainty, I can see 8%-10% of the population or close to 1 million wanting to do so. Now, if conditions improve and the future looks brighter, those numbers go down. But at the moment, a Mariel type of event would see far greater numbers today than the sums registered then.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 11:31 PM
From: United States
simple, Atabey. one of the unknowns is the immigration quota that the USA will set. i hardly see them allowing half a million cubans to come bolting in.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 11:32 PM
From: United States
do not look for any Mariel style events, any time soon. the facts have changed on the ground, both economically, and politically.
Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 11:50 PM
From: United States, NYC
With a time frame of say 10-20 years I can perfectly see such a movement Dread. In fact, if Cuba and the US had a 50K per year quota, there would be an extra million Cubans in the US today.
Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 11:57 PM
From: United States
and an extra million Dominicans. and Nigerians. and Jamaicans. and Cambodians.
Written by: Atabey, 25 Jul 2010 9:34 AM
From: United States, NYC
I didn't know these nations claimed to have found a different, better system of society Dread. Please enlighten us on their alternative to the Western Capitalist norm.
Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 10:47 AM
From: United States
i have not got the faintest idea what that statement is supposed to mean. maybe you should spell it out for me. i merely stated, in case it escapes you, that , if immigration quotas for these countries was expanded, more of their citizens would also emigrate. so, Atabey, that flies in the face of your nonsensical rejoinder.
Written by: Atabey, 25 Jul 2010 10:58 AM
From: United States, NYC
Check you "logic" on the post that started this discussion, if you care to see "nonsensical" thought. I even spelled it out for you.
Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 11:13 AM
From: United States
if you did spell it out for me, then you are not very good at making things clear, because i have no idea what you are talking about. i guess your ploy is to confuse me into submission. you are well on your way.
Written by: Atabey, 25 Jul 2010 1:00 PM
From: United States, NYC
"Written by: dreadlocks, 24 Jul 2010 9:28 AM

From: United States

Belly, any prognosis regarding a mass exodus cubans is one that is predicated entirely upon the immigration dynamics which will be occasioned by the political realities which develop. maybe cubans will have to get in line like every one else to petition for a visa to even visit the usa. they will not be leaving in the droves you forecast. besides, many will want to be a part of the new history. all who believe that the last men left will turn out the lights are sadly mistaken. as to your assertion of a 14 trillion dollar deficit...please elucidate, and cite your sources."

Written by: Atabey, 24 Jul 2010 9:06 PM
From: United States

" [A]ny prognosis regarding a mass exodus cubans is one that is predicated entirely upon the immigration dynamics which will be occasioned by the political realities which develop."[Dread]


Written by: Atabey, 25 Jul 2010 1:01 PM
From: United States, NYC

"they will not be leaving in the droves you forecast. besides, many will want to be a part of the new history. all who believe that the last men left will turn out the lights are sadly mistaken."
[Dread]

Contradiction? You say immigration is predicated on the dynamics of the as yet unknown political realities and then you say there will be no mass departures?

I think your first thought is correct. The second is unknown."

I'll try one more time. All the materials are listed above. I think that you might get confused when arguing with several people at the same time Dread.

Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 1:09 PM
From: United States
let me try this once more for you, Atabey. keep in mind the following..prospect theory..do not forget those two little words, and this might sink in. people make decisions based on their prospects. the people who want to leave cuba today are motivated by what they consider to be a lack of good prospects. you CANNOT extrapolate, from CURRENT figures, what the movement is likely to be if the politics and social dynamics in cuba change and people view their prospects differently. your projection is based on static, ceteris paribus extrapolations, which are simplistic, at best, and useless.
Written by: Atabey, 25 Jul 2010 1:38 PM
From: United States, NYC
I think your first thought is correct. The second is unknown."

Your first sentence "thought" is correct, I said. "The second one is unknown."

BUT YOU DID EXTRAPOLATE DREAD. You did state what conditions might be like! "they will not be leaving in the droves you forecast. besides, many will want to be a part of the new history." Who knows, AS YOU CORRECTLY STATED, what conditions might be like in the future?

That's why I agreed with your first sentence, not the last one. How can you state both with a straight face? That's where the contradiction arises. Understand now?
Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 1:52 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City

Written by Devin: "how come when a Cuban delegation of any type, whether it be in the arts, sciences or athletics comes to the US or it's territories there is never a 90% desertion?"

Written by Belly: "What does your statement proves and how does it relates to the Cuban embargo and what could happen if it gets lifted. How many Cubans would leave Cuba in a exact number would only be known once the border is open for travel but I can assure you that Fidel doesn't open for obvious reason that you don't see to recognize."

------------------------------------------------------------
I can't believe you would have to ask such an obvious question but I will give you a specific example. If as you claim 90% of Cubans would leave IF they were able to, then why when the Cuba baseball federation (70+ members) went to PR for the last World Baseball Cup, there were only TWO defections. Why were there not 63 defections which would be reflective of your 90% flee assessment.
Cont.---

Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 1:53 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
They were all dry foot on US soil and certainly within the parameters of the asylum laws, yet they having the chance did not leave their homeland to the degree that you have suggested. There are other contingents of Cubans that have had the opportunity to defect being on US soil over many years and decades and in every single instance while there have been defections, there has never, ever been any example to render merit to the assessment that you correlated, that's not a coincidence but a reflection on your super hyper-inflated valuation. If Cubans who have had the chance to leave their homeland by being on US soil have not done so anywhere near the extent to which you assess, why would there be any credibility to your assessment that 90% of Cubans having the chance would leave? An assessment that you can not lay any defense to in any logical or pertinent way.
Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 2:23 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City

Written by: Belly, 24 Jul 2010 9:44 PM
From: Dominican Republic, Mexico City, Mexico
"Devin11,

Thank you now I know who I'm talking to. Is funny that those who think like you are actually the ones who have never been to Cuba and only seem it in Google images or picture on the web."

----------------------------

Do you suggest that the only way a person can learn about a situation is from visiting the location? Yet you have never visited with me and yet you are making an assessment about "knowing who you are talking to". There are many informative sources about different subjects that can be consumed via a myriad of media. That is the most basic principle of learning and education. When you were a young student learning about the Pharoes and pyramids of Egypt, did the teacher lead everyone out of the classroom for a quick trip to the middle east, of course not. She provided sources of informative media, same as I use to know that your 90% claim is without merit.
Written by: Atabey, 25 Jul 2010 2:34 PM
From: United States, NYC
If I may interject here. Cubans are a proud people and even if their nation is facing very difficult times, many are not going to abandon their land lightly. A select group of athletes is not a normal set group of the Cuban population. Nevertheless, if the offer were a visa to practice their sport at the professional level and have the right to return to Cuba. I think many would do so. As many Cubans have expressed themselves before, they don't want to hurt their nation, they just want to secure a better future for themselves and their families. A purely normal human motivation.
Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 3:01 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Ata,

It's not just a select group of athletes but a group of many other members of what is a cross section of the Cuban community. Please remember that on these trips there are medical personnel including doctors, therapist and trainers. Coaches, journalists, pilots, translators, assistants, security personnel, secretaries, cooks, tailors, etc. Even the contingents that are in the arts and sciences with their support groups that also represent a diversified community grouping have not defected in numbers that anywhere near what Belly suggested. I have seen your estimate of an 8% to 10% migrational exodus which I would agree is sensible prediction as well as almost 10x lower than the 90% assessment that has been previously asserted.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 3:08 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

"I can't believe you would have to ask such an obvious question but I will give you a specific example. If as you claim 90% of Cubans would leave IF they were able to, then why when the Cuba baseball federation (70+ members) went to PR for the last World Baseball Cup, there were only TWO defections. Why were there not 63 defections which would be reflective of your 90% flee assessment."

Once again I ask you to be honest and post my quote about where I said "90% of Cuban WILL leave Cuba". Devin once again I tell you we can discuss all day long if you want but HONESTY should be the driver of the conversation not an eager dishonest motive to win at all cost by making STUFF UP I HAVE NEVER SAID HERE. Honesty is king in all my discussions.
Written by: Atabey, 25 Jul 2010 3:16 PM
From: United States, NYC
I agree that the true number is much lower. On the question of the selectivity of the groups, I still have questions because many of the personnel and other people involved in these sections have been screened and checked for party allegiance, etc. I've spoken with people in the arts, sports selections. If you had a group of common workers and just a regular sampling of typical Cubans, I think the defection rate would increase. But certainly not to the number under question.
Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 3:32 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City

Written by: Belly, 23 Jul 2010 12:07 PM
From: Dominican Republic, Mexico City, Mexico
Devin11

"If Cuba becomes a "free and open society" this would mean that Cubans would be able to exit the country at their wish just everybody else and we both know what this mean in a country where 90% of the people have been willing to leave for so many years."
------------------------

It was YOU who wrote the above post, it was also YOU who wrote the following, nobody else but YOU, on 24 Jul 2010 10:56 AM

"I clearly said that 90% of Cuban want to leave and I'm sure you and I know the difference between wanting to leave and being able to do so."

--------------------------
Therefore, why didn't the people who had the chance to do so over the many years and decades as I have expressed and detailed in exhaustive examples and over a wide cross sampling of the Cuban community at large LEAVE WHEN THEY HAD THE CHANCE TO IN REFLECTION OF YOUR ASSESSMENT. Did I make up your own quotes?
Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 3:44 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Ata,

Good point but I would also interject that anyone who wishes to defect would tow the party line to exhaustion in order to gain the opportunity to defect. If I planned to defect, I would never give a hint as to my true intentions for fear of being disconsidered for the opportunity to travel abroad with any delegation.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 3:46 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

You are trying to hard to win an argument with no base.

Here is what I said in quotes.

"I clearly said that 90% of Cuban want to leave and I'm sure you and I know the difference between wanting to leave and being able to do so."

Now here is what you just claimed I said in quotes.

"If as you claim 90% of Cubans would leave IF they were able to"

If you can't tell the difference between "WANTING TO LEAVE" in my quote and "WOULD LEAVE" in your quote, then I guess reader should decide for themselves. Just please don't put words in my mouth.

Meaning of "Wanting": something that is desired
Meaning of "Would" : Indicating an action or state that is conditional on another; Simple past of WILL
Written by: Atabey, 25 Jul 2010 4:07 PM
From: United States, NYC
Guys,

Let's all agree that our island brothers succeed in bringing about a smooth transition to their nation; that bloodshed be minimal and that resolution with their Cuban brothers and sisters outside of Cuba be guided with the best of intentions and forbearance. No one need think this a no win situation.
Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 4:38 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly,

I see that you missed the pejorative value of the word "IF" in my quote. When applied it remedies and reconciles both quotes, just ask any English major. I am sure that you can teach and educated me on many, many topics but the application of the English language and the grammatical components of the same is not one if them.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 5:13 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

I see that you won't recognize you made a mistake but I will be the adult here and do it. Ok you WIN and I LOOSE.

I will just leave you with one of my favorite quotes.

"Facts do not cease to exist just because you choose to ignore them"

Have a nice day and congratulation on your WINNING of this argument.
Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 6:38 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly,

Fist of all claiming to take the high road and "be the adult" by stating that i will not admit to what you and you alone term as a mistake on my part is not gracious but arrogant, yet another example of your failure to recognize the ironic inconstancies of your baseless anologies.

Second, I agree with the Aldous Huxley quote you cited and would ask to subscribe to it's intended message.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 6:55 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

I already said that you have WON and I have LOST the argument. You should feel good now and breath easy and enjoy it.

Once again I congratulate you on your WIN.
Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 7:26 PM
From: United States
Belly, i must say that your final response is unworthy of being called adult behavior. you can easily resolve the discourse by simply addressing the questions raised. they are not that difficult. simple mathematical coefficients can be applied, and we could get somewhere.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 7:40 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

I clearly said in my statement :

In my opinion 90% of Cubans have a desire to leave but it DOES NOT by any means I'm claiming 90% of Cubans WILL leave.

Devin said I was claiming : 90% of Cuban WILL leave if given the chance.

I'm sure you know the difference between those 2 statements.

Now let me ask you since you jumped in.

Do both of these 2 statements mean the same thing in the English language?
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 7:48 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
I'm more than happy to explain why in my opinion 90% of Cuban have a desire to leave.

I WILL NOT explain why 90% will leave if they had a chance because is a statement I HAVE NOT made here.
Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 8:06 PM
From: United States
of course they do not. and nobody is saying that you asserted that 90% will leave, since that is a ridiculous scenario to envision. the bone of contention is your thoroughly unscientific methodology for arriving at your numbers. impromptu interviews with people you stumble upon is not exactly scientifically acceptable
Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 8:09 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly,

Unless you have spoken to 90% of the Cuban people or an extensive sample size you cannot state that 90% of them have a desire to leave? You simply cannot attach a mathematical component to an opinion that does not provide a basis for a the mathematical that was supposed.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 8:11 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread says:

of course they do not. and nobody is saying that you asserted that 90% will leave, since that is a ridiculous scenario to envision.

Devin11 said I was claiming this.

"If as you claim 90% of Cubans would leave IF they were able to"

Belly says:

In my opinion 90% of Cubans have a desire to leave but it DOES NOT by any means I'm claiming 90% of Cubans WILL leave.

So can you see the flaw here.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 8:15 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

Unless you have spoken to 90% of the Cuban people, how can you state that 90% of them have a desire to leave?

I'm sure the number 90% of 1 is .9 and it exists as well as the number 90% of 1,000,000 is 9,00,000 and it does exist. Percentage are not fixed numbers they are part of a defined fixed number but I'm sure you already knew. Survey & Statistics 101 Nobody not even the U.N. when posting their statistic figure get even close to speaking to 90% of the world population.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 8:18 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

many post ago on this article I said and have said many times "In my opinion 90% of Cubans have a desire to leave"

Then I asked you and Dread to state your opinion as to what the percentage do you guys think it is. I also said that my opinion SHALL NOT be taken as U.N. type of statistical figures. Which part of this is still confusing you?
Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 8:21 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Belly,

By that logic, if I were to go to San Fransisco's most heavily gay district and survey a sample of who was gay or straight, I would conclude that a higher than appropriate amount of Americans are gay. Like I said if you attach a mathematical component to your arguement you have to show a practical and well sampled survey to arrive at your quotient.
Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 8:26 PM
From: United States
Belly, let us say, for argument´s sake, that i meet a destitute Dominican at 10 am. his prospects are bleak. i ask him if he would leave the country if he got a chance to go elsewhere, where things look more promising. surely, he is going to answer in the affirmative. two hours later, some guy comes along, and offers him a good gig. i interview him again, but now i get a different answer. i hope you get the point. its all about prospects. since we do not know what they will look like in a new cuba, all else is out the window. just plain time wasting.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 8:31 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Devin11

By that logic, if I were to go to San Fransisco's most heavily gay district and survey a sample of who was gay or straight, I would conclude that a higher than appropriate amount of Americans are gay.

There is a flaw in your logic that would be different from mine because you have a predefined purpose for your surveying of people by specifically going to the "Most heavily gay community". That was NOT the logic I used in my trips to Cuba. I would not gain or loose by the end results in my opinion. I was simply wanting a understanding of what regular Cuban would have a desire to do if they had the option of leaving.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 8:35 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

I agree with your statement and that's the reason why I refer to the 90% as MY OPINION instead of U.N type of statistical figures. It would be hard to asked a well educated doctor from Cuba to stick around until things improve after the embargo when USA is short on doctors and he could have a much brighter future.

"One thing is to call the devil and a whole different to see him coming"
Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 8:44 PM
From: United States
Belly, please tell us how many people you surveyed, the demographics, and the configuration of your questionnaire, if it is not too much trouble.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 9:00 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

My first trip to Cuba in 2001 which lasted about a month and couple of days was mostly in between Havana and Santa Clara which is the more populated area of Cuba. The second trip in 2007 which lasted around 3 weeks which was mostly area the Santiago northern and NW area. How many people in a exact number I simply don't remember but I must have come in contact with well over 100 people in the almost 2 month period in both trips. The range of people was from very well educated Cubans to very poor ones on the streets. I'm planning another trip maybe next year which I will use to gain better understanding on what local's life is like in the real Cuba that we never see on TV. They all had something in common I must say and is the feeling of not having a bright future and that's the sense you get when they generally talk. Most island in the Caribbean is compose of optimistic people enjoy life from the little they have and is not the sense I got in Cuba.
Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 9:06 PM
From: United States
Belly, i have no idea how your questions were formatted, whether they were closed ended, or open ended questions. in order to elicit useful information, questionnaires have to be designed by specialists in the area of interrogation, or you basically end up with a bunch of self serving answers.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 9:17 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

As I said before and will say it again. I was NOT conducting a professional survey for the next UN statistical figure. It was just me asking and trying to get a real picture of what they think life is like today in Cuba. I must ad that in between the 2 trips on the second more people were willing to actually come out and saying openly what they feel about the Castros and life in Cuba. Maybe that was a mentality change or the change in the demographics from Havana to Santiago. By the way I barely ever stayed at hotels for the same reason that is hard to get more accurate picture of the situation. Most of my trips whether they are work related or not include a lot of exploring of local life. I have always been interested in learning each country i visited from a local's perspective than a tourist eye.
Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 9:21 PM
From: United States
well, Belly, maybe since you concede that the survey was not professionally conducted, i can conclude that the data is meaningless. therefore, i have no idea how many people want to leave, based on your report.
Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 9:26 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
This is the 153rd post on this thread and I am completely spent on the issue. I want to thank Belly, Ata and the good Doctor for all of your time and engagement. The fact that this thread lasted for 150+ post without it being about the usual incindiary topics makes me very happy. I will, with Belly's permission take the "Winners Trophy" that he bestowed upon me and share it with him and all of you.

Thank you gentleman.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 9:34 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

therefore, i have no idea how many people want to leave, based on your report.

Then why did you say this;

"they will not be leaving in the droves you forecast. besides, many will want to be a part of the new history. all who believe that the last men left will turn out the lights are sadly mistaken."

Now that you know how I arrived with my opinion can you tell us how did you arrived to that statement above?

By the way I did NOT forecast anything here.
Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 9:34 PM
From: United States
devin, i feel slighted that you left me off your list
Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 9:35 PM
From: United States
you gave your forecast of 90% BEFORE i concluded that the data is faulty.
Written by: Belly, 25 Jul 2010 9:39 PM
From: United States, Seattle, W.A.
Dread

I didn't forecast anything my opinion was based on actual questioning there fore CANNOT be a forecast or a prediction of what would happen in actual life. My opinion was based on the answers of the Cubans i came in contact with. The reason I have been trying to explain here is basic I have NOT said Cubans will leave in droves or anything like it. My opinion simply states there is a DESIRE by most of the ones i came in contact with to leave for better grounds.
Written by: dreadlocks, 25 Jul 2010 9:47 PM
From: United States
i stand corrected. let us call them your findings. that is more neutral.
Written by: devin11, 25 Jul 2010 10:52 PM
From: United States, The Greatest City
Dread,

I never left you off the list, you are who I refered to as the good doctor, DR. DREAD.
"And when their album sales weren't doing too good, who's the doctor they told you to go see?!?!"
Written by: dreadlocks, 26 Jul 2010 1:07 AM
From: United States
the good doctor...hmmmm...i´ll take it. thanks, Devin
Written by: Blutarsky This user is banned, 27 Jul 2010 8:19 AM
From: Dominican Republic, No Spin Zone
Dread devin is the only thing that stands between you and the pitchforks
Written by: dreadlocks, 27 Jul 2010 9:50 AM
From: United States
and nothing stands between you and sheer idiocy.
Post Your Comment | Not a member? Create your account | Lost your password?
Write your opinion here. Please keep your comment relevant to this article. Please note that any comments which contain offensive language or discriminatory expressions may be edited/removed.
You must log in to post a comment:
Username Password